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Showing posts with the label RUSSIA

Morocco–Israel: Drone production introduces a new strategic equation. What response for Algiers?

The announcement of the deployment of an Israeli industrial capability for drone manufacturing in Morocco marks a major turning point in the Maghreb’s military balance. This development raises a central question: how can Algeria respond to this technological upgrade by its western neighbor? Options do exist, and they fall within the framework of a Russo-Algerian military cooperation that continues to strengthen. A Changing Regional Context: The Drone Factor as a Power Multiplier Armed drones are no longer just a tactical tool: they have become a strategic instrument, capable of striking deep, saturating defenses, and reshaping operational doctrines. For Rabat, integrating Israeli know-how into local drone production paves the way for capacity autonomy and asymmetric projection in the latent conflict over Western Sahara. In response, Algiers could turn to Russia’s long-range drone sector, particularly systems like the “Geran-2” (known as Shahed-136 in Iran), whose effectiveness has b...

Western Sahara: UN Resolution 2797 — A Geopolitical Turning Point with Deep Implications for Algeria

A seemingly technical decision, yet politically decisive On 31 October 2025, the United Nations Security Council adopted Resolution 2797, extending the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) for one additional year, until October 2026. Although this may appear as a routine administrative renewal, it actually represents a critical diplomatic juncture—one that could reshape the geopolitical balance of the Maghreb and directly affect Algeria’s vital national interests. An ambiguous resolution: neither a rupture nor full continuity Adopted by 11 votes in favor and 3 abstentions (China, Russia, and Pakistan), Resolution 2797 extends the mandate of MINURSO to maintain the ceasefire and prepare the conditions for a referendum on self-determination for the Sahrawi people. Contrary to some media narratives, the resolution does not recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. It reaffirms instead the principle of self-determination, the corner...

Western Sahara: Why Trump Could Not Change the Status of Guam or the Virgin Islands — Yet Morocco Believes It Can Do So in the Sahara

Since 1963, the Western Sahara has been listed by the United Nations among the non-self-governing territories, awaiting the completion of the process of decolonization. This status means, in legal terms, that the fate of the territory can only be determined through a UN-supervised referendum on self-determination, in accordance with the UN Charter and successive resolutions of the General Assembly. Yet, in 2020, Morocco sought to exploit a unilateral recognition by former U.S. President Donald Trump of its alleged sovereignty over the territory—a political transaction tied to the normalization agreements known as the Abraham Accords. However, despite its media resonance, this move has no legal weight under international law, especially when compared to Trump’s own inability to alter the legal status of territories administered by the United States for decades. The United States and Its Non-Self-Governing Territories: Sovereignty on Hold The United States administers several territories...

Western Sahara: A U.S. Diplomatic Retreat and an Algerian Triumph

As the United Nations Security Council prepares for its decisive vote on October 31, 2025, regarding the renewal of MINURSO’s mandate, discussions over Western Sahara have intensified, exposing a growing polarization within the international community. The draft resolution submitted by the United States—traditionally the penholder on this issue—has stirred notable controversy, revealing persistent rifts between major powers and regional actors. Established in 1991, the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) was tasked with overseeing the ceasefire between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front, while preparing a self-determination referendum. Yet that referendum has never materialized, and today the mission finds itself weakened by budgetary constraints—chiefly American—and recurrent political deadlocks. In this delicate context, UN Secretary-General António Guterres recommended a one-year extension of the mandate, until October 31, 2026, to allow...

Western Sahara: Geopolitical Reconfiguration and the Return of Algeria’s Military Factor

Since the breakdown of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020, the Western Sahara conflict has emerged from its historical “freeze,” in a diplomatic and security environment increasingly favorable to Morocco. This dynamic stems from a combination of factors: U.S. recognition in 2020, successive alignments of key allies (Spain, Israel, then France in 2024), deepening of Moroccan-Western military interoperability, and attempts to “securitize” the Polisario in the U.S. Congress. In this context, Algeria—the Polisario’s main backer—finds its status quo diplomacy yielding diminishing returns. This article offers a diagnosis of the strategic deadlock and options for redeployment to defend Algeria’s vital interests without triggering a spiral of regional escalation.  1. From Guerguerat to the Reconfiguration of the Maghreb (2020–2025) The collapse of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020 marked the end of an era of “hibernation” for the Saharan conflict. Since then, the Wes...

Between Alliance and Neutrality: Russia’s Stance on the Iran–Israel War – Analytical and Prospective Reading

As the conflict between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel escalates to unprecedented levels, Russia emerges as a pivotal actor attempting to navigate a delicate balance between two seemingly opposing paths: a strategic partnership with Tehran on one side, and stable, even trusting, relations with Tel Aviv on the other. Recent statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin officials reveal a calculated diplomatic posture, seeking to maintain influence in the Middle East without becoming militarily entangled. 1. Political Support Without Military Commitment The Kremlin has made it clear that Iran has not requested any military assistance from Russia, and that their strategic partnership includes no defense clauses. While this statement may appear technical, it carries significant political implications: Moscow is intentionally avoiding any direct involvement in the conflict, while still offering general political backing to Tehran. Russia acknowledges the presence of ov...

Wagner’s Departure from Mali: A Diplomatic Victory for Algeria and a Blow to Foreign Adventurism in the Sahel

After four controversial years marked by abuses and repeated security failures, the Russian paramilitary group Wagner has packed up and left Mali. This sudden withdrawal comes in the wake of intense diplomatic and security pressure from Algeria, which reasserts its role as a key regional power and a pillar of stability in the Sahel.   The Weight of Algerian Diplomacy Since Wagner’s arrival in Mali in 2021, Algeria has consistently and firmly denounced the presence of foreign mercenaries in a region it deems vital to its own national security. Algiers has made it clear that it categorically rejects the transformation of the Sahel into a playground for foreign powers and private military firms. According to Akram Kharief, a defense expert and founder of Menadefense, Moscow’s decision to recall Wagner was directly linked to the deterioration of Algerian-Russian relations on the matter, as well as the debacle in Tinzaouatène in July 2024 — a military failure that laid bare Wagner’s tac...

Mali-Algeria: Towards Normalization Under Russian Pressure?

Relations between Algeria and Mali have experienced unprecedented tensions since 2023. Once considered exemplary, especially through the Algiers Peace Agreement of 2015, the bilateral relationship took a dramatic turn following Algeria’s reception of Imam Mahmoud Dicko, a staunch opponent of Mali’s ruling junta. The Malian authorities viewed this as a provocative and unwarranted interference in their internal affairs, leading to retaliatory measures such as recalling their ambassador from Algiers and canceling the Algiers Agreement. Tensions escalated further with Russia’s growing military presence in Mali through the Wagner Group, which Algeria has viewed with suspicion, particularly near its borders. Amid this crisis, Morocco played a significant role in exacerbating tensions, using the opportunity to strengthen its ties with Bamako and positioning itself as an alternative strategic partner to Algeria. Additionally, Moroccan drug trafficking networks have continued to fuel terrorist ...

Algeria’s Strategic Foresight: A Diplomatic Victory in a Changing World

Algeria, often seen as a discreet yet influential player on the global stage, is now reaping the benefits of a well-calculated geopolitical strategy based on independence, regional influence, and diversified partnerships . While France faces increasing marginalization in Europe and Africa, and alliances in the Sahel begin to fracture, Algeria is solidifying its position as a key regional power . Recent developments— Mali’s diplomatic U-turn towards Algeria , France’s strategic missteps , and the exclusion of Europe from US-Russia discussions on Ukraine —all illustrate how Algiers’ commitment to pragmatism, sovereignty, and multilateralism is paying off in the long run. Mali Reconciles with Algeria: A Diplomatic Triumph One of the clearest signs of Algeria’s diplomatic success is Mali’s recent decision to restore high-level relations with Algeria by sending an ambassador to Algiers , signaling an attempt to de-escalate tensions that had emerged in recent months. 🔹 Morocco’s Attem...

Algeria Confirms Its Supremacy in Africa and the Mediterranean with the Acquisition of Su-57 and Su-34

Algeria has taken a significant step in modernizing its air force by becoming the first foreign country to acquire the Russian Su-57 "Felon" stealth fighter . This strategic deal, which includes 14 Su-57s, 14 Su-34 bombers, and 14 Su-35 fighters , reinforces Algeria’s position as a leading military power in Africa and the Mediterranean region . A Carefully Calculated Military Build-Up Negotiations for this ambitious contract began in 2019 at the MAKS Air Show in Moscow. The Algerian delegation, led by Major General Boumaiza , commander of the Algerian Air Force, conducted a thorough assessment of the Su-57’s performance, including simulator tests. As a former MiG-29 pilot , his expertise played a decisive role in selecting this fifth-generation aircraft. With this acquisition, Algeria joins an elite group of nations with a modern and diversified air fleet. By mid-2026 , its air force will be equipped with: A squadron of Su-57 stealth fighters A squadron of Su-35 air super...