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Showing posts with the label SPAIN

A world in flux: American uncertainties and France's strategic choice

The French refusal to align with a logic of long-term military engagement against Iran is neither ambiguous nor hesitant. It is part of a far broader geopolitical context, marked by a profound reconfiguration of power relations, growing uncertainty regarding the American stance, and the rise of systemic risks on a global scale. Three recent elements help to better understand the French position and, more broadly, the European one. 1. Contradictory signals from Washington: a weakened Western alliance For several months, Donald Trump has never concealed his distrust of traditional multilateral alliances. The issue of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO , or at the very least a major strategic disengagement, frequently reappears in his political discourse. This signal is far from trivial: it calls into question the very principle of automatic solidarity that has underpinned Euro‑Atlantic security since 1949. For Europeans, this hypothesis creates a dangerous equation: either align with a short‑te...

Prolonged shutdown of the reverse GME: a tension revealing Morocco's energy fragility

The interruption of gas flows for more than four days through the Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline (GME), operating in reverse mode from Spain to Morocco, was not a trivial technical incident. It was a moment of truth. Beginning on 21 March 2026, deliveries resumed only hesitantly, before grinding to a halt once more on 27 March—never rising above 30% of their nominal capacity. In its brevity, the episode nonetheless exposed the deeper structural fragilities underpinning Morocco’s energy architecture. A Supply Chain Under Strain For two brief days, on 25 and 26 March, gas volumes destined for Morocco peaked at roughly 833,000 cubic meters per day —before falling to zero again. This volatility mirrored a sharp contraction in liquefied natural gas (LNG) arrivals at Spanish terminals, particularly Huelva , a critical gateway for gas feeding the Moroccan system. Regasified volumes there slipped below the one‑million‑cubic‑meter mark, signalling a broader tightening of available supply across Sp...

GME: When Algeria turned off the tap… and forced Rabat to discover the true price of hostility

The Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline (GME) was never a mere technical installation. For a quarter of a century, it functioned as an energy bridge between Algeria, Morocco, and the Iberian Peninsula, demonstrating that a pipeline can continue to operate even when political relations deteriorate. Commissioned on November 1, 1996, the GME was conceived as early as 1990, built between 1993 and 1996, and continued to operate despite the closure of the Algerian–Moroccan land borders in 1994. What occurred in 2021, however, marked a true turning point : Algeria stopped treating gas as a so‑called “tool of cooperation” and restored it to what it has always fundamentally been—an instrument governed by cost, sovereignty, and deterrence . 1) The origins: a European project… with Morocco in a rent‑seeking position Initially, the GME served a clear objective: to transport Algerian gas to Spain and Portugal via Morocco and the Strait of Gibraltar. Stretching approximately 1,300 km, the pipeline was prese...

Western Sahara: A Historic U-Turn Puts Africa’s Last Decolonization Issue Back in the Spotlight

New York, April 16, 2025. In the solemn chamber of the United Nations Security Council, a man takes the floor. With composure, precision, and a measured gravitas, Staffan de Mistura , the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Western Sahara, delivers a briefing that, according to several diplomats present, may well mark a turning point in the protracted Sahrawi dossier. This report comes at a highly charged moment: fifty years after Spain’s withdrawal from Western Sahara in 1975, the question of decolonization remains unresolved, frozen in a status quo that only a crisis—or a concerted international awakening—might shake loose. For the first time in a long while, such a shift now appears within reach. A Diplomatic Trilogy at the Core of the Report Three key messages emerge from De Mistura’s address—three pillars that reflect both the current posture of the United States and shifting power dynamics within the Security Council. 1. Toward “Genuine” Autonomy: A Call for Clari...

The CIA declassifies a document that reveals Morocco's true motives in the 1963 Sand War

On August 23, 1957, a confidential CIA document was drafted, revealing crucial insights into French policy toward Algeria, then in the midst of its war of independence. Recently declassified, this document sheds new light on France’s intentions regarding the oil-rich Saharan regions and its post-independence strategies. Through diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical maneuvers, Paris sought to maintain its grip on this strategically vital territory. An Indispensable Algerian Sahara for France According to the document, France regarded the Algerian Sahara as a region of paramount importance—not only for its oil and gas resources but also for its strategic position in North Africa. With this in mind, Paris was determined to secure its control over the area at all costs, administratively detaching it from the rest of Algeria. This policy materialized in 1957 with the creation of two separate Saharan departments—an initiative designed to ensure that even in the event of Algerian independenc...

Spain-Morocco: A Diplomatic Crisis Unfolding Amid Shocking Revelations

Relations between Morocco and Spain are going through an unprecedented period of turbulence. After the Pegasus spyware scandal and heightened tensions over Western Sahara , a new major crisis could permanently reshape ties between Madrid and Rabat. The discovery by Spanish security services of a tunnel linking Morocco to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta , used for drug trafficking into Europe, has shed light on much deeper connections between the Makhzen (Moroccan regime) and organized crime networks . But beyond drug smuggling, even more explosive revelations from a former high-ranking Moroccan intelligence officer—now in exile in Spain—could send shockwaves through Rabat's leadership. A Tunnel Exposing a Well-Oiled System The discovery of this tunnel, used to transport Moroccan cannabis to Europe , is only the tip of the iceberg . For decades, Morocco has been recognized as the world’s leading producer of cannabis resin , with multiple international reports pointing to direct involv...

Algeria and Spain: A Rapprochement That Confirms Algeria’s Strength, Not Isolation

Contrary to claims made by certain Moroccan media outlets, Algeria’s rapprochement with Spain is not an attempt to break out of regional isolation. Instead, Algeria is strengthening its position as a key regional power, while it is Spain that is seeking to restore relations with its strategic partner after suffering significant economic losses due to Algeria’s sanctions. In this article, we will use facts and sources to demonstrate that Algeria is in a position of strength in this renewed relationship and that it is actually its adversaries, not Algeria, who find themselves isolated on the international stage . 1. Algeria: A Key Player in the Mediterranean and Africa 1.1. A Strategic Energy Supplier for Europe Algeria possesses the 10th largest proven natural gas reserves in the world and is Africa’s top gas exporter . Its importance has grown even further due to the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine. Italy signed a major agreement with Sonatrach in 2022 to increase its...