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Western Sahara: Geopolitical Reconfiguration and the Return of Algeria’s Military Factor

Since the breakdown of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020, the Western Sahara conflict has emerged from its historical “freeze,” in a diplomatic and security environment increasingly favorable to Morocco. This dynamic stems from a combination of factors: U.S. recognition in 2020, successive alignments of key allies (Spain, Israel, then France in 2024), deepening of Moroccan-Western military interoperability, and attempts to “securitize” the Polisario in the U.S. Congress. In this context, Algeria—the Polisario’s main backer—finds its status quo diplomacy yielding diminishing returns. This article offers a diagnosis of the strategic deadlock and options for redeployment to defend Algeria’s vital interests without triggering a spiral of regional escalation.  1. From Guerguerat to the Reconfiguration of the Maghreb (2020–2025) The collapse of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020 marked the end of an era of “hibernation” for the Saharan conflict. Since then, the Wes...