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Showing posts with the label MOROCCO

AFCON 2025 — The CAF Appeals Jury Decision and the Berkane Precedent: A Legal Reading, Sober and Decisive

The decision of the Appeals Jury of the Confederation of African Football (CAF) to strip Senegal of a victory earned on the pitch and award the Africa Cup of Nations to Morocco by administrative decision (on a “green table”) appears, upon examination, vitiated by manifest illegality , devoid of any persuasive legal basis and, as such, destined for clear annulment by the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS). This is not a mere disagreement over interpretation, nor a debatable exercise of discretion. The reasoning adopted reflects a fundamental error in legal classification and collides head‑on with the core principles of sports law— legality, proportionality, legal certainty, and the stability of competitions . By persisting in such a logic, CAF risks opening an institutional breach whose consequences could be lasting—not only for the outcome of a tournament, but for the credibility of the continental sporting order itself. 1) A Regulatory Basis Invoked… but Misapplied In an attem...

Morocco's strategic shock: when the illusion of Western protection clashes with geopolitical realities

For several decades, Morocco has made a clear strategic choice: to anchor its military and security doctrine within the Western system. Rabat has thus invested heavily in interoperability with NATO armies , multiplied military cooperation agreements with the United States and European powers, and, more recently, deepened its security and technological cooperation with Israel. This orientation was not merely a policy of military modernization. It rested on a fundamental strategic assumption: integration into the Western security architecture would offer Morocco a form of implicit protection in the event of a major crisis. However, recent geopolitical developments in the Middle East—particularly the tensions linked to the confrontation with Iran —have begun to shake this conviction in several regional capitals. The Gulf precedent: costly but limited alliances The Gulf monarchies have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in their strategic relations with the United States. They have...

Towards an energy shock in Morocco? Dependence on American LNG and the risk of a Spanish blockade

The Violent Reshaping of Global Power Dynamics — Accelerated by the War Against Iran, the Washington–Madrid Rift, and Russia’s Threat to Cut Gas Supplies to Europe — Could Trigger a Severe Energy Shock for Morocco.  Behind diplomatic niceties lies a simple strategic reality: Morocco’s energy architecture rests on a fragile logistical device that depends almost entirely on Spain — a country whose priorities are now overwhelmingly redirected toward ensuring Europe’s energy security. I. The Breakdown of the Maghreb Gas System The current situation has its roots in the termination of the Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline (GME) contract in 2021. This 1,620‑kilometre pipeline historically carried Algerian gas to Spain via Morocco. When Algeria decided not to renew the transit agreement, Morocco suddenly lost direct access to Algerian gas. To compensate for this structural rupture, Rabat set up an unprecedented four‑step mechanism: Purchasing LNG on international markets Unloading in Spain’s re...

TSGP: The Trans‑Saharan Pipeline and the Emerging Geopolitical Map of Africa

The Trans‑Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP)—linking Nigeria to Algeria through Niger —is no longer merely an engineering undertaking. It has evolved into one of the most strategically charged energy corridors on the African continent . By connecting West Africa’s vast gas reserves to Europe through Algerian export networks, the project is shaping a new geopolitical geography at a moment when global energy markets are undergoing profound restructuring. Recent statements by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune confirmed that construction will begin immediately after Ramadan , marking a decisive shift from planning to execution.  1. A Continental Energy Corridor With Global Stakes Technically, the TSGP is designed to transport up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year , running more than 4,000 km from southern Nigeria to Algeria’s Hassi R’Mel hub . Once it reaches Algeria, Nigerian gas would be injected into existing export routes such as Medgaz , TransMed , and potentially LNG ...

From the MiG-25 era to the consolidation of a regional power: Algeria's strategic trajectory

Since the late 1970s, Algeria has undertaken a methodical transformation of its military apparatus, a shift that has deeply shaped the strategic balance in the Maghreb. The entry into service of the Mikoyan‑Gurevich MiG‑25 within the People’s National Army (ANP) marked a decisive turning point. At the time, this supersonic interceptor—capable of flying at very high altitudes and reaching speeds close to Mach 3—introduced a major technological breakthrough in the region. This choice was neither symbolic nor circumstantial. It reflected a long-term strategic vision: ensuring durable qualitative superiority based on deterrence and autonomy. Continuous Modernization: From Classical Deterrence to the Advanced Generation The acquisition of the MiG‑25 was only the starting point of a cumulative dynamic. Algeria gradually consolidated all dimensions of its military power. The introduction of the Sukhoi Su‑30MKA marked a major leap in operational versatility: air superiority, ground attack, a...

Western Sahara: The Illusion of Victory and the Reality of Power Dynamics

For several months, a deliberate campaign has sought to impose a simple idea: the question of Western Sahara is settled, sealed, irreversible. Morocco, we are told, is no longer negotiating anything; it is merely formalizing a sovereignty already acquired. Washington’s mission, according to this narrative, would be to persuade the Polisario Front to place its signature at the bottom of an agreement whose terms are supposedly already written. This staging aims to produce a psychological effect: to create the impression that history has already ended. Yet in diplomacy, declaring a conflict resolved does not resolve it. Rhetoric may precede reality; it never replaces it. Resolution 2797: A Diplomatic Instrument, Not a Blank Check Resolution 2797 is presented as the definitive consecration of autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty . But a strategic reading suggests something quite different. The Security Council: describes the Moroccan initiative as “serious and credible”; calls for a poli...

In one week, Algeria erased ten years of Moroccan mirages in Africa

Since its return to the African Union, Morocco has multiplied grandiose announcements meant to illustrate a renewed pan‑African ambition. Yet these projects, often presented as engines of South‑South integration, struggle to move beyond the realm of communication and end up resembling one another in their lack of concrete implementation. Among these initiatives are: – the promise to build a capital city for South Sudan; – the Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline project; – an Atlantic access corridor intended for Sahel countries; – and an electric cable supposedly meant to link Morocco to the United Kingdom, even though the country remains structurally dependent on electricity imports from Spain. In this context, President Tebboune’s announcement of the effective start of construction works on the Algeria–Niger–Nigeria gas pipeline, on Nigerien territory, marks a major turning point and significantly reduces the scope of the competing project promoted by Rabat. General Tiani’s visit to Algiers...