Relations between Algeria and Mali have experienced unprecedented tensions since 2023. Once considered exemplary, especially through the Algiers Peace Agreement of 2015, the bilateral relationship took a dramatic turn following Algeria’s reception of Imam Mahmoud Dicko, a staunch opponent of Mali’s ruling junta.
The Malian authorities viewed this as a provocative and unwarranted interference in their internal affairs, leading to retaliatory measures such as recalling their ambassador from Algiers and canceling the Algiers Agreement. Tensions escalated further with Russia’s growing military presence in Mali through the Wagner Group, which Algeria has viewed with suspicion, particularly near its borders.
Amid this crisis, Morocco played a significant role in exacerbating tensions, using the opportunity to strengthen its ties with Bamako and positioning itself as an alternative strategic partner to Algeria. Additionally, Moroccan drug trafficking networks have continued to fuel terrorist groups in northern Mali, further destabilizing the region and complicating security cooperation between Algiers and Bamako.
Today, Russia appears to be pushing for a thaw in Algeria-Mali relations, recognizing Algeria’s crucial role as a strategic partner in its African policy. The key question now is whether this shift marks a genuine rapprochement or a temporary diplomatic maneuver driven by geopolitical calculations.
Morocco’s Role in Worsening Algeria-Mali Relations
Exploiting Diplomatic Tensions
As Algeria and Mali’s relations deteriorated, Morocco seized the opportunity to expand its influence in Bamako, presenting itself as an alternative ally to Algeria.
One of Morocco’s key diplomatic moves was promoting a commercial corridor linking Mali to the Atlantic Ocean via Mauritania and the port of Dakhla. Rabat framed this as a means for Mali to reduce its economic dependence on Algeria, promising a new trade route that could boost Mali’s exports and connectivity.
However, many analysts view this initiative as more of a political maneuver than an economically viable project. Given the logistical and infrastructural challenges involved, the feasibility of such a corridor remains highly questionable. Instead, its primary goal seems to be undermining Algeria’s traditional influence in the Sahel and isolating Algiers diplomatically.
Moroccan Influence on Mali’s Military Leadership
Since Assimi Goïta took power in 2021, there have been increasing signs of a growing diplomatic alignment between Mali and Morocco. Rabat has actively courted Mali’s military leaders, offering economic incentives and strategic partnerships to shift Bamako’s stance on regional issues.
One of the clearest signs of this influence is Mali’s increasingly ambiguous position on Western Sahara, an issue that has long been a major point of contention between Algeria and Morocco. While Mali had traditionally supported Algeria’s pro-Sahrawi stance, recent statements from Malian officials have suggested a more neutral—if not subtly pro-Moroccan—position.
At the same time, Morocco has used its diplomatic and media apparatus to discredit Algeria’s role in Mali, portraying Algiers as an unreliable mediator and fueling anti-Algerian rhetoric among Malian officials. The abrupt cancellation of the Algiers Peace Agreement was one of the key victories for Morocco in this geopolitical battle.
The Role of Moroccan Drug Networks in Supporting Terrorist Groups in Northern Mali
Drug Trafficking: A Financial Lifeline for Sahelian Terrorism
Northern Mali has long been a hub for trans-Saharan drug trafficking, with Moroccan cannabis resin playing a significant role in financing criminal and terrorist groups.
According to reports from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Morocco remains one of the world’s largest producers of cannabis resin. Large quantities of this drug are smuggled through Algeria, Mauritania, and Mali before reaching other African and European markets.
Terrorist groups such as Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and ISIS in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) exploit this illicit trade by taxing drug convoys passing through their territories. This provides them with critical financial resources to purchase weapons, recruit fighters, and carry out deadly attacks against local security forces.
Morocco’s Complicity in Destabilizing the Sahel?
While Moroccan authorities officially deny any involvement in drug trafficking, many security analysts argue that Rabat’s lax enforcement policies have indirectly facilitated the drug trade. By allowing traffickers to operate with minimal state interference, Morocco has contributed to the instability plaguing the Sahel region, particularly in Mali.
Algeria has long been vocal about the threat posed by Moroccan drug networks, frequently seizing massive shipments of Moroccan cannabis at its borders. However, the sheer scale of the operation—combined with porous borders and corruption among local security forces—has made it difficult to completely shut down the trade.
For Mali, this situation is particularly dangerous, as the combination of drug trafficking, terrorism, and arms smuggling creates a vicious cycle of instability that weakens state control in the north and strengthens the influence of criminal and extremist groups.
What’s Next for Algeria-Mali Relations?
1. Gradual Normalization Under Russian Pressure
Russia’s growing influence in Mali means that Moscow has a vested interest in de-escalating tensions between Bamako and Algiers. Algeria is a key Russian partner in Africa, both militarily and economically, and maintaining positive relations between the two Sahelian neighbors aligns with Moscow’s broader strategic goals.
2. A Temporary but Fragile Reconciliation
Despite recent diplomatic overtures, Mali may continue to hedge its bets between Algeria and Morocco without fully committing to either side. This could lead to a fragile, short-term normalization that remains susceptible to future disruptions, especially if security tensions persist.
3. A Renewed Moroccan Influence Leading to Further Tensions
If Morocco succeeds in solidifying its ties with Mali, Algeria-Mali tensions could flare up again. This would be especially true if Moroccan-backed networks continue to operate in the Sahel, undermining Algeria’s counterterrorism efforts and exacerbating insecurity in northern Mali.
Conclusion
While recent signs suggest a potential thaw in Algeria-Mali relations, this reconciliation remains precarious and subject to broader geopolitical influences. Russia is likely playing a crucial role in this process, recognizing Algeria’s strategic importance in Africa. However, Morocco continues to pursue an aggressive strategy in Mali, using both diplomatic and economic tools to weaken Algeria’s position.
Additionally, the continued presence of Moroccan drug trafficking networks in the Sahel remains a serious security threat, funding terrorist groups and exacerbating instability. Unless Mali takes decisive action to curb these activities, its security situation will remain fragile, with direct consequences for the broader region.
Ultimately, the future of Algeria-Mali relations will depend on whether Bamako prioritizes regional security and pragmatic cooperation with Algiers over short-term political gains from Moroccan overtures. Without a sincere commitment to stability, the current detente may prove to be nothing more than a temporary diplomatic maneuver rather than a lasting resolution.
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