As the United Nations Security Council prepares for its decisive vote on October 31, 2025, regarding the renewal of MINURSO’s mandate, discussions over Western Sahara have intensified, exposing a growing polarization within the international community. The draft resolution submitted by the United States—traditionally the penholder on this issue—has stirred notable controversy, revealing persistent rifts between major powers and regional actors.
Established in 1991, the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) was tasked with overseeing the ceasefire between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front, while preparing a self-determination referendum. Yet that referendum has never materialized, and today the mission finds itself weakened by budgetary constraints—chiefly American—and recurrent political deadlocks.
In this delicate context, UN Secretary-General António Guterres recommended a one-year extension of the mandate, until October 31, 2026, to allow his Personal Envoy, Staffan de Mistura, to revive a stalled political process.
A Turning Point in the International Approach
The latest Security Council meeting marked a turning point in the global dynamics surrounding the Sahrawi question. For the first time in years, the United States has made a clear shift in its position, signaling a significant evolution in its approach. This diplomatic retreat reinforces Algeria’s patient and resolute diplomacy—whose effectiveness has been remarkable—while underlining the resilience of the Polisario Front in the face of Morocco’s ongoing pressure and maneuvering.
1. Washington Alters Its Stance: The Moroccan Autonomy Plan Is No Longer “the Only Solution”
One of the most significant developments in this session was the revision of U.S. diplomatic language within the draft resolution. Whereas previous drafts sought to impose recognition of the “Moroccan autonomy plan” as the sole outcome to the conflict, the U.S. delegation has now removed any exclusive mention of it.
The new text merely states that autonomy “could be a solution,” alongside other proposals, including those of the Polisario Front. This semantic shift is far from trivial—it implicitly acknowledges the principle of equality between the parties and restores the right to self-determination as the cornerstone of the Sahrawi issue since 1963.
2. The Return of the Principle of Self-Determination: A Reaffirmation of International Legality
By refraining from privileging the Moroccan plan, Washington now aligns itself with the Polisario Front’s position and with UN resolutions affirming that any solution must be based on the freely expressed will of the people of Western Sahara.
This change, subtle yet strategic, signals the end of Morocco’s narrative dominance within the Security Council and restores the issue to its legitimate framework—that of decolonization rather than a mere territorial dispute.
Thus, American diplomacy implicitly recognizes that the Sahrawi people must choose their own destiny—whether autonomy, independence, or any other option—within a free and transparent referendum process.
3. Renewing MINURSO’s Mandate: A Return to the UN’s Founding Logic
Another sign of this rebalancing is the renewal of MINURSO’s mandate for six months instead of the three months initially proposed, which aimed to weaken the mission and force a hasty, unbalanced settlement.
This longer mandate reflects the intent to give the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy the necessary time to relaunch a genuine political process, in full conformity with the principles of the UN Charter.
4. Moscow’s Role as a Counterweight: The Russian Veto in Perspective
Russia has played a decisive role in reshaping these diplomatic balances.
By maintaining its firm stance and threatening to exercise its veto power if its proposals were excluded, Moscow clearly signaled its rejection of any biased approach to the issue.
This Russian firmness has curbed U.S. attempts to maintain a pro-Rabat text and strengthened Algeria’s diplomatic leverage as a steadfast ally of the principle of self-determination.
Bilateral consultations between Moscow and Washington, planned ahead of the final vote, reflect a crisis of confidence within the Security Council and confirm that the initial U.S. draft resolution has become obsolete.
5. The Polisario Front Remains Firm: No Negotiation Under Duress
The Polisario Front immediately reaffirmed its unwavering stance: it will not participate in any political negotiation if the Security Council adopts a text echoing Trump’s orientation.
This refusal is not posturing—it is a reaffirmation of legitimacy. Recognized by the UN as the legitimate representative of the Sahrawi people, the Polisario Front insists that any political initiative must respect the right to self-determination.
This firmness, backed by Algeria, has heavily influenced the American redrafting of the resolution.
6. A Resounding Algerian Diplomatic Victory
The U.S. retreat represents a major diplomatic victory for Algeria, which has steadfastly and convincingly upheld international law against pressure and manipulation.
This success confirms that Western Sahara remains a decolonization issue, not a bilateral dispute or a border matter.
By restoring the principle of self-determination at the heart of discussions, Algiers has reversed the post-2020 dynamic and demonstrated that Trump’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara held neither legal validity nor lasting effect.
Today, the United States steps back, the Security Council reconsiders, and Morocco finds itself diplomatically isolated—forced to acknowledge the loss of its primary argument.
7. Toward a More Proactive Algerian Strategy — Strengthening the Sahrawi Cause by All Legitimate Means
This diplomatic victory, as clear as it is, marks only a stage. Algeria now realizes that defending the Sahrawi people’s rights can no longer rely solely on the moral and political resistance of the past.
Facing an adversary intent on perpetuating the status quo as long as it feels unthreatened, Algiers is likely to fundamentally reassess its approach to the Sahrawi dossier.
Such a reassessment will not mean abandoning international law—on the contrary. It will embody a more comprehensive, proactive, and coordinated strategy built on several complementary pillars:
- Political and diplomatic strengthening: intensified multilateral lobbying, mobilization of Global South countries, reinforced coalitions within the African Union and regional organizations, and a stronger diplomatic communication effort to isolate attempts at normalizing faits accomplis.
- Institutional support for the Sahrawi people: enhanced backing for civil structures, governance, basic services, and socio-economic resilience, to consolidate their capacity to withstand pressure.
- Military capabilities for the Polisario: improved surveillance, logistics, civil protection, communications, and air defense—especially anti-drone measures—to ensure freedom of movement in liberated territories.
- Legal and media strategy: preparation of robust legal cases for international forums, increased engagement with international courts and bodies, and a coordinated media campaign to assert Sahrawi legitimacy worldwide.
- Coordination with the Polisario Front: political and technical accompaniment to strengthen its negotiating position through non-violent, UN-compliant means.
By acting on these fronts simultaneously, Algeria seeks to project a more effective global strategy—no longer enduring faits accomplis but shaping the conditions for a lasting, lawful settlement based on self-determination.
The objective is clear: to ensure that, when genuine negotiations arise, the Sahrawi side approaches the table with undeniable political, diplomatic, and institutional strength.
Conclusion: The Diplomacy of Law Triumphs Over the Diplomacy of Facts
The renewal of MINURSO’s mandate is far more than an administrative formality—it marks a paradigm shift.
The restoration of UN language, the reaffirmation of self-determination, the firmness of Russia and the Polisario Front, and above all, American prudence, all signal a resounding victory for Algerian diplomacy—one that has upheld legitimacy over force, and consistency over opportunism.
The vote scheduled for October 31 will signify not merely a technical extension, but the return of international legality to the Western Sahara dossier—a triumph of law, of the Sahrawi people, and of Algeria’s vision for a Maghreb free from domination.
By Belgacem Merbah
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