Western Sahara: Geopolitical Reconfiguration and the Return of Algeria’s Military Factor

Since the breakdown of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020, the Western Sahara conflict has emerged from its historical “freeze,” in a diplomatic and security environment increasingly favorable to Morocco. This dynamic stems from a combination of factors: U.S. recognition in 2020, successive alignments of key allies (Spain, Israel, then France in 2024), deepening of Moroccan-Western military interoperability, and attempts to “securitize” the Polisario in the U.S. Congress. In this context, Algeria—the Polisario’s main backer—finds its status quo diplomacy yielding diminishing returns. This article offers a diagnosis of the strategic deadlock and options for redeployment to defend Algeria’s vital interests without triggering a spiral of regional escalation. 

1. From Guerguerat to the Reconfiguration of the Maghreb (2020–2025)

The collapse of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020 marked the end of an era of “hibernation” for the Saharan conflict. Since then, the Western Sahara file has entered a logic of contained re-militarization and restructuring of regional alliances.

As MINURSO gradually lost operational control of the buffer zone, skirmishes along the berm brought the Sahara issue back to the heart of the strategic rivalry between Algiers and Rabat, against a backdrop of growing global polarization.

While Morocco successfully turned U.S. recognition in December 2020 into a major diplomatic lever, Algeria now sees the space for a multilateral settlement based on international law narrowing.

2. Diplomatic Shift and Normative Encirclement of Algiers

The 2020–2024 sequence was marked by an unprecedented series of Western alignments:

• Washington (2020) recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, linking it to Moroccan-Israeli normalization;
• Madrid (2022) and Paris (2024) adopted the language of “realism” and “autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty”;
• Tel Aviv (2023) reinforced this front by integrating it into a security axis connecting the Mediterranean and the Middle East.

However, this diplomatic advantage faces a structural constraint: European law. The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), in its ruling of October 4, 2024, invalidated the application of EU-Morocco agreements of 2019 to Western Sahara without the consent of the Sahrawi people.

This paradox—political recognition versus legal illegitimacy—creates for Algiers a long-term lever of contestation at the core of a lawfare strategy that needs reinvestment.

3. Morocco’s Military Anchoring in the NATO Ecosystem

The rise of Moroccan-Western military partnership now constitutes the cornerstone of Rabat’s strategy.

The African Lion maneuvers, led by U.S. AFRICOM, illustrate this gradual integration: they link Morocco to joint operations, information sharing, CBRN capabilities, and multinational logistics.

This setup does not imply direct NATO engagement in case of war, but guarantees Morocco massive logistical, technological, and doctrinal support:

• Satellite intelligence and cybersecurity assistance;
• Maintenance and training via NATO–Partnership for Peace programs;
• Easier access to Western equipment supply chains.

Thus, in a scenario of regional escalation, Morocco would benefit from a NATO “logistical shadow”: no troops on the ground, but a strategic support environment comparable to that observed for Ukraine before February 2022.

This factor significantly strengthens Morocco’s implicit deterrence vis-à-vis Algiers.

4. The Mirror Effect: Toward an Algerian Russo-Chinese Axis

Faced with this diplomatic and military encirclement, Algeria is not isolated.

Its historic partnership with Russia—the main arms supplier (≈70% of Algeria’s stock)—and its accelerated rapprochement with China, within the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Africa Forum, provide Algiers with deep alternative strategic depth.

Moscow remains a key partner for ANP modernization (T-90, S-400, Iskander-E) and shares with Algiers a common reading of international law based on sovereignty and rejection of external interventions.

Beijing, for its part, offers Algeria a technological and economic base (infrastructure, telecommunications, surveillance, drones) and cautious diplomatic cover at the UN Security Council.

In case of major deterioration on the Saharan front, these two actors would not intervene militarily but could amplify logistical, technological, and diplomatic support to Algiers:

• Accelerated equipment deliveries, intelligence cooperation, backing in international forums, and political cover against Western sanctions.

This deferred support system—Russo-Chinese soft balancing—would form the counterweight to NATO support for Morocco, recreating a global strategic balance in the Maghreb.

5. The Military Temptation: Deterrent Tool or Dangerous Spiral?

The prospect of calibrated Algerian military support for the Polisario resurfaces as the diplomatic path narrows.

Such support, if limited—defensive deliveries, intelligence, training—could:

• Restore the Polisario’s operational capacity;
• Reintroduce asymmetric pressure on the ground;
• And enhance Algiers’ negotiating position.

But this option carries major risks:

• Legal and political, as it would feed the U.S. narrative of “Saharan terrorism” and facilitate adoption of H.R. 4119 in Congress;
• Strategic, as it could precipitate a reinforced Western logistical reaction in favor of Rabat;
• Regional, as it would turn the frozen conflict into a proxy war, with a Maghreb split between two spheres of influence: NATO in the West, Russia-China in the East.

Thus, the real challenge for Algiers is to calibrate a hybrid deterrence combining discreet military aid, legal activism, and diplomatic offensive, without crossing the threshold of open escalation.

6. Three Axes for an Algerian Rebalancing Strategy

(a) The European legal front.

Institutionalize an offensive lawfare strategy based on CJEU jurisprudence to block any economic normalization of the Sahara in European circuits.

(b) Rehabilitation of the UN framework.

Strengthen MINURSO, document violations, demand independent investigations, and restore visibility to the principle of self-determination in international bodies.

(c) Stabilizing power diplomacy.

Project Algeria’s image as a guarantor of regional stability, defender of multilateralism, and pivotal actor between Africa, the Mediterranean, and Eurasia—a positioning that contrasts with Rabat’s perceived militarization.

7. Conclusion: A Maghreb on the Path to Strategic Bipolarization

The Western Sahara conflict today goes beyond a bilateral dispute to become a friction point between geopolitical blocs.

Morocco falls within a Western support sphere—NATO logistics, U.S. diplomatic cover, Israeli synergy—while Algeria, without a formal alliance, anchors itself in a Russo-Chinese arc betting on international law, non-intervention, and stability.

In this configuration, Algeria’s strategic survival depends on its ability to combine three levers:

• Indirect military deterrence via controlled support to the Polisario;
• Prolonged legal warfare to delegitimize occupation on the European stage;
• Multipolar diplomacy, articulating Moscow, Beijing, and Global South states.

The Maghreb’s balance is thus being redrawn around an unprecedented geopolitical bipolarization:

• A Western Atlanticist Maghreb, backed by NATO;
• And an Eastern Eurasian Maghreb, backed by Moscow and Beijing.

Western Sahara, once a peripheral conflict, becomes the laboratory of a new global strategic architecture—where Algeria plays for its credibility as a sovereign power, and Morocco for its integration into the Western system.

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By Belgacem Merbah

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