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Algeria’s Strategic Foresight: A Diplomatic Victory in a Changing World

Algeria, often seen as a discreet yet influential player on the global stage, is now reaping the benefits of a well-calculated geopolitical strategy based on independence, regional influence, and diversified partnerships. While France faces increasing marginalization in Europe and Africa, and alliances in the Sahel begin to fracture, Algeria is solidifying its position as a key regional power.

Recent developments—Mali’s diplomatic U-turn towards Algeria, France’s strategic missteps, and the exclusion of Europe from US-Russia discussions on Ukraine—all illustrate how Algiers’ commitment to pragmatism, sovereignty, and multilateralism is paying off in the long run.


Mali Reconciles with Algeria: A Diplomatic Triumph

One of the clearest signs of Algeria’s diplomatic success is Mali’s recent decision to restore high-level relations with Algeria by sending an ambassador to Algiers, signaling an attempt to de-escalate tensions that had emerged in recent months.

🔹 Morocco’s Attempt to Pull Mali Away from Algeria
In recent years, Morocco has sought to expand its influence in West Africa, particularly in Mali, as part of a broader strategy to diminish Algeria’s role in the region. By leveraging its growing economic ties and diplomatic outreach, Rabat aimed to gain Bamako’s support—partly to counter Algeria’s stance on Western Sahara and partly to establish itself as a dominant player in the Sahel.

🔹 Algeria Remains an Indispensable Partner
Despite these maneuvers, geopolitical realities have forced Mali to reconsider its stance:

  • Security and counterterrorism cooperation: Algeria shares a vast and strategic border with Mali, making it a natural security partner in the fight against terrorism.
  • The 2015 Algiers Peace Accord: Algeria played a central role in negotiating this agreement, which remains the foundation for Mali’s internal stability.
  • Algeria’s humanitarian and economic support: Unlike external players seeking strategic leverage, Algiers has consistently prioritized African solidarity and mutual cooperation.

Mali’s return to diplomatic engagement with Algeria marks a significant setback for Morocco’s regional ambitions and reaffirms Algeria’s status as a cornerstone of Sahelian stability.



France’s Strategic Miscalculations: From Influence to Isolation

While Algeria is consolidating its diplomatic position, France is experiencing a historic decline in its geopolitical relevance, especially after its July 2024 decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara—a move that has backfired on multiple fronts.

🔹 A Violation of International Law
By formally endorsing Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara, France has openly contradicted:

  • United Nations resolutions, which continue to consider Western Sahara as a non-self-governing territory.
  • The European Court of Justice (ECJ), which ruled that Western Sahara is separate from Morocco and that its resources cannot be exploited without the consent of the Sahrawi people.
  • Algeria’s stance, further straining Franco-Algerian relations and reducing France’s leverage in North Africa.

🔹 France’s Declining Influence in Africa
This diplomatic gamble is only the latest in a series of setbacks for France:

  • The forced withdrawal of French forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has ended France’s military dominance in the Sahel.
  • The rise of alternative powers such as Russia, Turkey, and China has weakened France’s traditional grip on African affairs.
  • Algeria has strengthened its influence within the African Union, positioning itself as a reliable regional mediator.

🔹 France Isolated in Europe
Even within Europe, France’s decision has received little support. While Spain and Germany have had moments of diplomatic realignment with Morocco, they have not followed Paris’ lead in recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Meanwhile, the European Union remains committed to UN resolutions, leaving France isolated even within its own bloc.

The US and Russia Discuss Ukraine Without Europe

A further indication of shifting global power dynamics is the recent direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow on Ukraine—with neither Ukraine nor the European Union at the table.

🔹 Europe’s Strategic Irrelevance
Despite European leaders' strong rhetoric in favor of Ukraine, this development exposes a harsh reality:

  • Europe is not a major military power and remains dependent on US strategic leadership.
  • The EU lacks an independent foreign policy, making it a spectator rather than a decision-maker in global conflicts.
  • France, which once aspired to lead European diplomacy, is now sidelined from key geopolitical discussions.

This growing irrelevance of Europe in major negotiations contrasts sharply with Algeria’s steady rise as a key diplomatic force in Africa and the Mediterranean.

Algeria’s Ascent in a Multipolar World

While France and Europe struggle to define their roles in an evolving global order, Algeria is emerging as a stabilizing force with an increasing say in regional and global affairs.

🔹 A Diplomacy Rooted in International Law
Unlike France, which has jeopardized its credibility by undermining UN resolutions, Algeria remains committed to principles of self-determination, particularly concerning Western Sahara and Palestine—a stance that has won it global respect and diplomatic leverage.

🔹 Diversified International Alliances
Algeria has successfully built a multi-directional foreign policy:

  • Strengthening partnerships with China and Russia, while maintaining dialogue with the US.
  • Reinforcing its ties within the African Union, positioning itself as a key mediator in regional disputes.
  • Maintaining balanced relations with Europe, while asserting its independence from Western influence.

🔹 Internal Stability Strengthens External Influence
Unlike in the turbulent 1990s, Algeria today enjoys relative internal stability, which enhances its ability to shape regional developments rather than being consumed by internal crises.

Conclusion: Algeria’s Strategic Choices Pay Off

In a world undergoing profound geopolitical shifts, Algeria’s long-term strategy is proving to be a winning formula.

  • Mali is re-establishing ties with Algeria, recognizing its indispensable role in the Sahel.
  • France is facing diplomatic isolation due to short-sighted decisions that contradict international law.
  • Europe is being sidelined from critical global negotiations, losing strategic relevance.

By sticking to its principles, diversifying its partnerships, and maintaining its geopolitical independence, Algeria is not only asserting itself as a key regional power but also positioning itself as a crucial player in an emerging multipolar world.




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