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Western Sahara: Why Trump Could Not Change the Status of Guam or the Virgin Islands — Yet Morocco Believes It Can Do So in the Sahara

Since 1963, the Western Sahara has been listed by the United Nations among the non-self-governing territories, awaiting the completion of the process of decolonization. This status means, in legal terms, that the fate of the territory can only be determined through a UN-supervised referendum on self-determination, in accordance with the UN Charter and successive resolutions of the General Assembly. Yet, in 2020, Morocco sought to exploit a unilateral recognition by former U.S. President Donald Trump of its alleged sovereignty over the territory—a political transaction tied to the normalization agreements known as the Abraham Accords. However, despite its media resonance, this move has no legal weight under international law, especially when compared to Trump’s own inability to alter the legal status of territories administered by the United States for decades. The United States and Its Non-Self-Governing Territories: Sovereignty on Hold The United States administers several territories...

Western Sahara: A U.S. Diplomatic Retreat and an Algerian Triumph

As the United Nations Security Council prepares for its decisive vote on October 31, 2025, regarding the renewal of MINURSO’s mandate, discussions over Western Sahara have intensified, exposing a growing polarization within the international community. The draft resolution submitted by the United States—traditionally the penholder on this issue—has stirred notable controversy, revealing persistent rifts between major powers and regional actors. Established in 1991, the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) was tasked with overseeing the ceasefire between the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front, while preparing a self-determination referendum. Yet that referendum has never materialized, and today the mission finds itself weakened by budgetary constraints—chiefly American—and recurrent political deadlocks. In this delicate context, UN Secretary-General António Guterres recommended a one-year extension of the mandate, until October 31, 2026, to allow...

Western Sahara: The Temptation of the “Exclusive” and the Mechanics of Stalemate

Behind the ornate walls of the Security Council, Washington has retreated from its ambition to make Morocco’s autonomy plan the sole basis for negotiation. Tested against the realities of power politics, this exclusivity collided with UN arithmetic, veto threats, and the jurisprudence of international law, reverting—yet again—to the familiar language of a “just, lasting, and mutually acceptable” solution and the routine extension of MINURSO’s mandate without doctrinal change. In the background, one structural fact remains: the U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty in December 2020, embedded in the diplomatic bargaining of the Abraham Accords, shifted the center of gravity of the issue beyond the UN framework—without creating multilateral consensus. 1) A “Plan” Without the Parties: Algeria Excluded, Sahrawis Marginalized The 2024–2025 cycles confirmed the impression of a process steered elsewhere : Algeria publicly denounced the American penholder’s “biased” approach and abstained...

Western Sahara: Geopolitical Reconfiguration and the Return of Algeria’s Military Factor

Since the breakdown of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020, the Western Sahara conflict has emerged from its historical “freeze,” in a diplomatic and security environment increasingly favorable to Morocco. This dynamic stems from a combination of factors: U.S. recognition in 2020, successive alignments of key allies (Spain, Israel, then France in 2024), deepening of Moroccan-Western military interoperability, and attempts to “securitize” the Polisario in the U.S. Congress. In this context, Algeria—the Polisario’s main backer—finds its status quo diplomacy yielding diminishing returns. This article offers a diagnosis of the strategic deadlock and options for redeployment to defend Algeria’s vital interests without triggering a spiral of regional escalation.  1. From Guerguerat to the Reconfiguration of the Maghreb (2020–2025) The collapse of the ceasefire at Guerguerat in November 2020 marked the end of an era of “hibernation” for the Saharan conflict. Since then, the Wes...

Western Sahara: Deconstructing Moroccan Propaganda Arguments and Reestablishing the International Legal Framework

A recurring media narrative today portrays Moroccan “autonomy” as the only “realistic” solution to the Western Sahara dispute, suggesting a decisive shift in international law and UN practice. This article, grounded in primary sources, demonstrates that the applicable legal framework remains unchanged: Western Sahara is still classified as a non-self-governing territory undergoing a decolonization process based on the Sahrawi people's right to self-determination. UN Security Council resolutions continue to call for a just, lasting, and mutually acceptable political solution that ensures self-determination—without endorsing a single predetermined outcome. Recent European jurisprudence reaffirms the territory’s status as “separate and distinct” from Morocco and underscores the requirement of Sahrawi consent for any agreement affecting it. While some bilateral positions support the Moroccan initiative, they do not alter the binding nature of UN norms. 1. A Legal-Political Dispute Und...

Algeria and Russia confronting American bullying… and Western Sahara caught between justice and international complicity

 During its extraordinary session on October 24, the UN Security Council witnessed a fresh eruption of deep divisions that shake the UN institution whenever the Sahrawi issue is raised. This issue remains one of the last decolonization files in Africa, despite ongoing attempts to dilute and circumvent it. Washington’s Project… A Coup Against International Legitimacy The document submitted by the United States was nothing but a crude attempt to rewrite history and whitewash the Moroccan occupation under the guise of “political realism.” The American proposal clearly seeks to erase the principle of self-determination, the cornerstone of all UN resolutions on Western Sahara since 1965. What Washington is proposing is not a “peace plan” as it claims, but a plan of submission, aiming to impose the logic of force over the logic of justice, and to cement Moroccan control over a land where the occupier holds only the legitimacy of repression, while the Sahrawi people hold the legitimacy...

Algeria faces Moroccan propaganda: Moscow will not betray its principles and Algiers will not compromise on the rights of the Sahrawi people

 The claim circulated by Moroccan media that “Algeria is moving toward abstention” in the upcoming UN Security Council vote on Western Sahara is not news—it is fiction. A fiction crafted to mask Rabat’s diplomatic setbacks and to fabricate the illusion of a global consensus around an “autonomy” plan that has no foundation in international law. This narrative is less analysis than fantasy. It seeks to impose a storyline where Algeria is “isolated” and where major powers are allegedly preparing to abandon their principles. The geopolitical reality, however, is clear: neither Moscow, nor Beijing, nor Algiers will endorse any resolution that legitimizes occupation or entrenches a colonial status quo. The UN Charter is not a bargaining chip. Law, Not Illusion The question of Western Sahara is not a “regional dispute”; it is an unfinished process of decolonization. The only legitimate outcome remains the same: a credible UN-supervised referendum on self-determination. Everything else ...