New York, April 16, 2025. In the solemn chamber of the United Nations Security Council, a man takes the floor. With composure, precision, and a measured gravitas, Staffan de Mistura, the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General for Western Sahara, delivers a briefing that, according to several diplomats present, may well mark a turning point in the protracted Sahrawi dossier.
This report comes at a highly charged moment: fifty years after Spain’s withdrawal from Western Sahara in 1975, the question of decolonization remains unresolved, frozen in a status quo that only a crisis—or a concerted international awakening—might shake loose. For the first time in a long while, such a shift now appears within reach.
A Diplomatic Trilogy at the Core of the Report
Three key messages emerge from De Mistura’s address—three pillars that reflect both the current posture of the United States and shifting power dynamics within the Security Council.
1. Toward “Genuine” Autonomy: A Call for Clarity
Since 2007, Morocco has proposed a plan for autonomy in Western Sahara, often described as a “realistic and credible” solution. Yet the details of this proposal remain conspicuously vague. While it references a local parliament and administrative governance, crucial questions remain unanswered:
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What degree of Sahrawi sovereignty would be respected?
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What guarantees exist for judicial independence, political rights, or control over natural resources?
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What is the precise relationship to the Moroccan monarchy?
In his report, De Mistura calls for a substantial clarification of the proposal. According to a leaked internal memo from the U.S. State Department (published by The Washington Post in March 2025), Washington has requested a revised version of the Moroccan plan, including provisions to integrate the Polisario Front as a co-administrator of the territory during a transitional phase.
2. A “Mutually Acceptable Solution”: The Return of Self-Determination
Though diplomatically couched, the phrase is loaded with meaning. Since Resolution 1514 (1960), the United Nations has regarded the Sahrawi question as a matter of decolonization, affirming the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination. Morocco firmly rejects the idea of a referendum, while the Polisario Front—with strong backing from Algeria—has made it the cornerstone of its position.
De Mistura emphasizes that no lasting resolution can be achieved without a credible process that allows for popular expression. He invokes the notion of a “form of self-determination” to be defined—potentially through a free vote following the transitional phase.
According to the Doha Centre for Strategic Studies, such a mechanism could take inspiration from precedents like South Sudan (2011) or East Timor (1999), both of which held internationally supervised referendums following periods of transitional governance.
3. A More Assertive U.S. Involvement: Washington Shifts Course
Under the Trump administration, the United States recognized Moroccan “sovereignty” over Western Sahara in December 2020, in exchange for Rabat’s normalization of relations with Israel. That move was met with strong criticism from the international community, including the African Union.
But since the new administration took office in 2024, signs suggest a quiet reversal. In a February 2025 hearing before Congress, U.S. Secretary of State Linda Thomas-Greenfield declared:
Any solution to the Western Sahara issue must align with the fundamental principles of international law and must involve the Sahrawi people.
This statement was anything but trivial. It marked a deliberate departure from the previous administration’s stance and signaled a renewed commitment to resolving the conflict within a multilateral, UN-led framework.
Toward a Transition Under International Supervision?
According to diplomatic sources in Geneva and New York, a confidential plan is currently under consideration, with backing from the United States, Germany, and Norway. It envisions a five-year transitional period under UN supervision, during which:
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The Polisario Front would oversee daily administration of the territory.
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Sahrawi refugees in the Tindouf camps (Algeria) would return under international protection.
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A voter census would be organized with assistance from the UNHCR.
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Local institutions—including a parliament, a presidency, and a constitutional council—would be established.
This blueprint draws on tested models from Namibia (1989–1990) and Kosovo (1999–2008), where international mediation played a pivotal role in post-colonial transitions.
Algeria, Spain, and Mauritania: Regional Anchors of the Roadmap
Algeria, a longstanding backer of the Polisario Front, would serve as a guarantor of the peace process, alongside Mauritania, which borders the disputed territory. Spain—former colonial power—still administratively controls Sahrawi airspace under the mandate of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
Madrid is thus a critical technical and diplomatic actor in the transition. In March 2025, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares told Parliament:
Spain stands ready to actively support any solution grounded in international law and accepted by the Sahrawi people.
Conclusion: The Twilight of a Moroccan Myth?
Should this plan materialize, it would strike a serious blow to Morocco’s long-standing propaganda, a frontal rejection of the carefully crafted narrative Rabat has propagated for decades. The Polisario Front, long portrayed as a terrorist militia to undermine its legitimacy, would finally be recognized as a legitimate counterpart—possibly even as a provisional governing authority. A symbolic shift, but one of profound consequence.
Deprived of Washington’s unconditional support, Morocco now finds itself facing a more pragmatic and principle-driven America—one less inclined to place geopolitical expediency above legal and moral clarity. In this new reality, Rabat may be forced to accept what was previously unthinkable: direct negotiations with the Polisario Front, a scenario long dismissed as taboo.
Within this tense and shifting landscape, Rabat’s increasingly desperate lobbying efforts in U.S. think tanks begin to make sense. Figures such as Zineb Riboua of the Hudson Institute have circulated commissioned reports framing the Polisario as a regional terrorist threat—a clumsy attempt to reshape the narrative when facts no longer support it.
But beyond these diplomatic theatrics and glossy white papers, one truth remains immovable: Western Sahara is still a colonized land, its fate yet to be determined by the free will of its people. Should the UN succeed in reviving a credible and just process, it would be more than a victory of law over might—it would be a defining moment in Africa’s history, a promise fulfilled: the dignified closure of its final colonial chapter.
By Belgacem Merbah
Primary Sources:
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United Nations Security Council Reports, April 2025
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The Washington Post, “Washington’s Quiet Reversal on Western Sahara,” March 3, 2025
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Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, The Future of Self-Determination in Western Sahara, January 2025
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Official Speeches at the UN Security Council
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Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Parliamentary Session of March 5, 2025
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African Union Peace and Security Council, Special Report on Western Sahara, February 2025
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