Western Sahara: France's major strategic error in the face of a vital Algerian interest and Moroccan expansionist ambitions
France’s decision to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara is neither a mere diplomatic adjustment nor an act of pragmatic realism. It is a profound strategic miscalculation—one that reflects a flawed understanding of power dynamics in the Maghreb and a significant misreading of the Algerian state, its vital interests, and its stabilizing role in the region.
In seeking what it perceived as a comfortable partnership with Rabat, Paris underestimated a fundamental reality: Western Sahara represents an absolute red line for Algeria, touching simultaneously upon its historical doctrine, its national security, and the regional balance of power in the face of Moroccan territorial ambitions.
I. Western Sahara: Algeria’s Non‑Negotiable Vital Interest
Contrary to the dominant European view, which reduces Western Sahara to a localized territorial dispute, Algeria regards it as an existential issue embedded in its post‑independence strategic doctrine.
1. A doctrinal constant rooted in the war of liberation
Algeria’s position rests on immutable principles:
- the right of peoples to self‑determination,
- absolute rejection of territorial annexations,
- the inviolability of borders inherited from decolonization.
For Algiers, abandoning Western Sahara would amount to denying its own history, undermining the very legitimacy of the national state, and breaking a deep internal consensus. No Algerian government—whatever its nature—could afford such a rupture without triggering a major legitimacy crisis.
2. A decisive element of Algeria’s Sahelian strategic depth
Western Sahara is also a cornerstone of Algeria’s security architecture:
- it shapes the strategic balance of the country’s southwest,
- prevents hostile projection toward the Sahel,
- and secures an essential buffer zone in an increasingly unstable Sahelian environment.
Algeria’s support for the Sahrawi people is therefore neither ideological nor emotional; it is a rational geopolitical calculation rooted in national and regional security.
II. France’s Misstep: Confusing Diplomatic Convenience with Strategic Centrality
By recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, France committed a classic error of declining powers: mistaking the most compliant partner for the most consequential one.
1. Morocco: a diplomatic hub, not a systemic power
Morocco offers Paris a predictable, disciplined, and well‑aligned diplomacy. Yet it lacks the attributes of a pivotal power:
- structural energy dependence,
- limited military depth compared with Algeria,
- no central role in the Sahel,
- comparatively smaller demographic and industrial weight.
Morocco is a useful actor—but not a determinant one—in North Africa’s strategic and energy architecture.
2. Algeria: the overlooked pivotal power
Conversely, Algeria concentrates the region’s principal strategic levers:
- a key energy provider for Europe (gas, green hydrogen),
- strategic mineral resources (including Gara Djebilet iron),
- the Maghreb’s most capable army,
- a sovereign, centralized, and non‑aligned state,
- decisive influence across the Sahel.
By undermining its relationship with Algiers, France has alienated the only regional actor capable of sustaining long‑term stability, especially after its own withdrawal from the Sahel.
III. An Irreversible Decision from Algeria’s Perspective
One of France’s most significant diplomatic misjudgments was assuming that Algeria might eventually “backtrack” out of pragmatism or external pressure.
This assumption is entirely false.
IV. Morocco’s Expansionist Doctrine and the Notion of “Authentic Borders”
France’s error is compounded by an overly superficial reading of Morocco’s territorial doctrine, often reduced to a single claim.
1. Article 42 of the Moroccan Constitution: an explicit revisionist vision
It implies:
- a challenge to borders inherited from decolonization,
- an open‑ended territorial claim,
- a fait‑accompli logic rooted in power projection.
Western Sahara fits squarely into this vision—not as an endpoint but as a strategic milestone.
2. Western Sahara as a platform for regional projection
International recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara would grant Rabat:
- strategic depth toward the Sahel,
- an Atlantic‑Sahelian territorial continuum,
- enhanced political and security projection capacity.
Such a scenario would reshape regional balances and create a dangerous precedent for Africa as a whole.
V. Algeria as the Strategic Firewall Against Expansionist Ambitions
Within this context, Algeria’s role is central.
By upholding the Sahrawi right to self‑determination, Algiers:
- prevents destabilizing territorial reconfigurations,
- safeguards the principle of inviolable African borders,
- blocks any expansionist projection toward the Sahel.
Western Sahara thus forms an advanced defensive line for Algeria—not against Morocco as a state, but against a revisionist territorial doctrine with the potential to ignite the entire region.
VI. A French Error with Lasting Consequences
In recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, France has:
- forfeited its traditional role as a balancing power in the Maghreb,
- deeply alienated Algeria,
- weakened its credibility in Africa and across the non‑aligned world,
- endorsed a logic that runs counter to international law.
This is not a simple diplomatic misstep, but a historic strategic error, whose consequences will be felt over the long term—especially in matters of energy, security, and geopolitical influence.
Conclusion: Western Sahara, Algeria’s Red Line and a Pillar of Regional Stability
France’s decision to favor Morocco over Algeria is, in the medium and long term, a perilous economic and strategic wager.
It distances Paris from a partner whose strategic value is irreplaceable:
- Algeria remains one of the few reliable suppliers able to ensure France stable access to energy resources—an asset Morocco cannot compensate for.
- Algeria’s commercial exchanges, industrial investments, and structural markets constitute indispensable levers for major French companies across key sectors.
- Over a decade, the cumulative effect on exports, contracts, direct investments, and energy security could amount to tens of billions of euros.
- While Morocco shows genuine commercial dynamism, it cannot replace an energy partner whose resources and market depth underpin regional economic stability.
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