The consultations held in Madrid on the Western Sahara dossier—under direct U.S. stewardship—signal a qualitative shift in how the file is being managed: Washington is increasingly setting the pace while the United Nations recedes to an observer role, according to convergent coverage from Spanish, regional, and international outlets.
1) An unprecedented framework: Washington “leads,” the UN observes
Multiple reputable outlets report that on February 8, 2026, a closed‑door meeting took place inside the U.S. Embassy in Madrid, gathering four high‑level delegations—Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, and the Polisario Front—with UN envoy Staffan de Mistura present more as an observer than as the driver, while U.S. officials Massad Boulos (special representative for Africa) and Michael Waltz (U.S. ambassador to the UN) ran point. The Madrid session followed a first, secret 48‑hour contact in Washington roughly two weeks earlier—an unmistakable sign that the U.S. has moved from “facilitator” to “director.”
This American repositioning is not merely cosmetic; it imposes a new sequencing that blends security and geostrategic considerations with UN legality, while pressing parties to work to concrete timelines and deliverables rather than open‑ended talking points.
2) Toward a multi‑party technical architecture: narrowing Rabat’s narrative control
The evolving Madrid track points to a more technical, multi‑stakeholder approach—bringing legal and policy experts under U.S./UN oversight—limiting Rabat’s longstanding effort to keep the conversation framed around its autonomy initiative alone. Coverage by TV5MONDE and Afrik.com highlights that the discussions are being re‑engineered around legal, political, and operational questions, with mechanisms (committees or working groups) that transcend broad political posturing.
For Morocco, that implies a loss of narrative monopoly: the focus shifts to testable answers on competences, guarantees, and enforcement rather than generic assertions of sovereignty—exactly the sort of scrutiny that a technical committee tends to institutionalize.
3) The expanded Moroccan autonomy plan: U.S. expectations exceed the current offer
Morocco arrived in Madrid with a new, expanded version of its autonomy proposal—roughly 40 pages versus the concise 2007 text. Yet Spanish and U.S. readouts cited in the press suggest the document, while more detailed, still falls short of what Washington would consider a “genuine” autonomy arrangement, potentially requiring constitutional reform in Morocco’s centralized state structure—an intensely sensitive proposition for the monarchy.
At the same time, the referendum option remains outside the U.S.‑imposed framing—though it continues to anchor the Algerian and Polisario narratives—creating a paradox for Rabat: either substantively deepen autonomy at home (with high political and constitutional cost) or risk alienating the new, hands‑on mediator pressing for a practical, implementable settlement.
4) Algeria: from indispensable stakeholder to “framework partner”
Analyses converge on a basic truth reaffirmed by Madrid: no credible pathway exists without Algeria—not only due to its historic support for the Polisario but because it anchors the self‑determination principle in international legality and hosts Sahrawi structures on its territory. Algeria’s presence in Madrid aligns with its consistent line—decolonization case, UN resolutions, multilateral setting—paired with a willingness to engage so long as the process is not “pre‑locked” onto a single outcome.
Functionally, that elevates Algeria to a “framework partner” with de facto veto or enabling power; any bilateral understanding between Rabat and the Polisario will struggle to hold unless Algiers is satisfied with the legal, political, and security end‑state.
5) Tension indicators: tight‑lipped endgame and a refused group photo
The Madrid round ended with no press conference or joint communiqué, and reports indicate the Sahrawi and Algerian delegations refused a group photo with Morocco despite U.S. insistence—details that, while outside formal readouts, cohere with the secrecy and personalized diplomacy enveloping this phase and underscore how contentious the substance (not merely procedures) remains.
6) Washington sets the next waypoint: May 2026 could be decisive
Media leaks and briefings suggest the next phase of direct talks is slated for Washington in May 2026, with a possible third round there as well—cementing the Americanization of the process and keeping all parties on a compressed timetable aimed at a political framework agreement. For Rabat, the dual effect is clear: the centrality of Washington narrows solo maneuvering space, and the structured inclusion of Algeria makes it harder to push an autonomy‑only resolution without additional, verifiable guarantees.
Analytical bottom line: a bargaining balance shifting against Rabat
- A direct U.S. lead, with the UN in a framing/observational role, is rewriting the rules of engagement.
- A technical, multilateral scaffolding diminishes the efficacy of unilateral narratives and pushes for measurable, enforceable commitments.
- The expanded Moroccan autonomy plan faces a higher U.S. bar—potentially constitutional in nature—or risks losing momentum with the key broker.
- Algeria’s centrality is reaffirmed, complicating any attempt to sideline or bypass its role in a durable settlement.
Against that backdrop, Morocco’s position looks more complex: the traditional strategy—foreground the autonomy initiative, minimize the Polisario, and circumscribe Algeria’s role—collides with a U.S.‑centric, multi‑track, law‑and‑implementation‑driven process that asks all parties—especially Rabat—for concrete, testable answers rather than declaratory politics.
Key source coverage (for further reading):
- TV5MONDE on “secret negotiations in Madrid under U.S. guidance” (Feb 8, 2026). [informatio...5monde.com]
- Médias24 and Entreprises du Maroc relaying El Confidencial’s scoop on the quadripartite meeting and the updated Moroccan autonomy document. [medias24.com], [librentreprise.ma]
- Afrik.com on Algeria’s centrality and the shift toward a legal‑multilateral approach. [afrik.com]
- Regional analyses on the expanded autonomy offer and Washington’s expectations. [moroccomail.fr]
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