Sometimes a project is so vast, so audacious, so gloriously out of proportion that it feels more like a legend than an engineering plan. The Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline—recently dissected by the American consultancy North Africa Risk Consulting (NARCO)—is a textbook example.
NARCO didn’t pull any punches, branding it a “pharaonic,” “useless,” and outright “white elephant” venture. In plain terms: colossal in cost, endless in scope, and almost certain to defy logic.
TSGP vs. GAA: Logic Meets Imagination
On one side stands Algeria’s Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP)—a focused, pragmatic project involving just three countries: Nigeria, Niger, and Algeria. Most of the infrastructure is already in place, and aside from the Niger segment, the route is relatively straightforward.
On the other side, Morocco champions the Atlantic Africa Pipeline (GAA)—an ambitious line stretching across 11 coastal nations, winding north to Morocco before crossing into Europe.
A marathon pipeline riddled with diplomatic hurdles, engineering complexities, multiple jurisdictions, and a price tag that could make even oil magnates wince. As NARCO bluntly puts it: closer to fantasy than functionality.
Big Numbers… Until You Dig Deeper
Morocco’s ONHYM claims the pipeline will deliver 30 billion m³ of gas annually, export 18 billion to Europe, and provide energy access to 400 million people.
NARCO dismantles these projections with ease:
- Those “400 million beneficiaries” include 168 million Nigerians who already have energy access.
- The forecast assumes the 11 transit countries are virtually unelectrified—an “unrealistic” scenario.
- The real number of new beneficiaries? Closer to 40 million.
- After each country takes its 5% share, only 15 billion m³ reaches Morocco.
Of that, Morocco consumes 3 billion, leaving 12 billion for export—four times less than Algeria’s current exports to Italy and Spain combined.
Cost: A Break-Even Point in the Year 2313
Initially priced at $25 billion, the GAA could balloon to $38 billion, making it one of the most expensive pipelines ever conceived.
For perspective:
- Medgaz (Algeria–Spain) became profitable in 12 years.
- The Morocco–Nigeria pipeline? 288 years.
If construction started today, it would break even around 2313—a future where pipelines might be museum pieces and humanity could be shipping fuel to Mars.
Why Push a Project Everyone Knows Won’t Work?
Geoff Porter, NARCO’s president, offers a simple answer: image.
The Moroccan monarchy favors grand, headline-grabbing projects to showcase innovation and visionary leadership—regardless of practicality or profitability.
Officials like Amina Benkhadra (ONHYM) and Leila Benali (Energy Transition Ministry) reportedly know the project is non-viable… yet must promote it.
A bit like smiling in an ad for a blender you know overheats after 10 minutes.
The Real Objective: Western Sahara
NARCO suggests the pipeline’s true purpose is geopolitical: creating a fait accompli to reinforce Moroccan claims over Western Sahara.
In this light, the pipeline is less about energy and more about symbolism—a strategic stake in the ground.
TSGP: Pragmatism Over Spectacle
By contrast, Algeria’s TSGP looks far more feasible:
- A simpler route through just one transit country (Niger).
- Minimal new infrastructure required.
- Straightforward land construction—unlike Morocco’s costly underwater sections.
Security risks in Niger? Manageable, says NARCO, with proper protection for compression stations.
Algeria plans to self-finance, while Morocco faces mounting debt and uncertain EU funding.
Conclusion: A White Elephant on Parade
The Nigeria–Morocco pipeline is a PR masterpiece: vast in scale, dazzling in concept, geopolitically symbolic… and economically indefensible.
It spans 11 nations, demands astronomical investment, and defies profitability—yet lets Morocco project ambition and indispensability.
A magnificent white elephant, paraded along the Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, TSGP moves quietly—less glamour, more engineering, and far greater realism.
And history tends to favor modest pragmatism over extravagant fantasy.
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