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Egypt and Algeria: Analyzing Egypt’s Sudden Policy Shift in the African Union

In an unexpected turn of events, Egypt has nominated Hanan Morsy for the position of Vice President of the African Union Commission, despite having previously pledged its support for Algeria’s candidate, Malika Hadadi. This sudden shift in Egypt’s stance has raised numerous questions about its underlying motives and potential implications for Egypt-Algeria relations and the balance of power within the African Union (AU).

Does this policy change signal hidden tensions between the two North African giants? Is it part of Egypt’s broader strategy to expand its influence in Africa? Or could external pressures be shaping Cairo’s diplomatic choices? This article delves into the possible reasons behind Egypt’s move and its impact on the African diplomatic landscape.

1. Is Egypt Seeking to Reposition Itself in Africa?

a) Egypt’s Gradual Return to the African Scene

Egypt’s influence in Africa had declined following the 2011 revolution and the ousting of former President Mohamed Morsi in 2013. However, since President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took office, Cairo has been working to reclaim its position, demonstrated by its chairmanship of the African Union in 2019 and its intensified diplomatic efforts across the continent.

Against this backdrop, Egypt’s decision to nominate its own candidate for an AU leadership position could be seen as part of its broader strategy to strengthen its presence in Africa’s political institutions, ensuring its voice is heard in continental decision-making.

b) A Silent Competition with Algeria?

Algeria has long held significant influence in Africa, particularly in matters of security and conflict resolution, such as in Mali, Libya, and the Sahel region. Initially, Egypt’s support for Malika Hadadi reflected a spirit of cooperation between the two nations. However, by suddenly fielding its own candidate, Cairo may be signaling a desire to challenge Algeria’s dominance and assert its own vision for Africa’s future.

2. Are There Underlying Tensions Between Egypt and Algeria?

a) Divergent Positions on Key Regional Issues

  • Libya Crisis: Egypt has been a key backer of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, while Algeria advocates for a more neutral and inclusive political solution. This divergence has already caused diplomatic friction and could be a factor in Egypt’s decision.
  • The Sahel Region: Algeria is a leading actor in Sahel security, particularly through initiatives such as the Mali Peace Agreement. Egypt, on the other hand, has been expanding its security cooperation with Sahel countries, which could be seen as encroaching on Algeria’s sphere of influence.
  • The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): One of Egypt’s most critical foreign policy issues is its dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile waters. While Algeria has maintained a neutral stance, its diplomatic ties with Ethiopia might be perceived with suspicion by Cairo.

b) A Race for African Leadership

Egypt and Algeria are among North Africa’s most powerful nations, each with a different approach to African affairs. Algeria leverages its historical ties with African liberation movements and positions itself as a diplomatic heavyweight in security and peace negotiations. Egypt, in contrast, seeks to increase its institutional presence in African organizations and invest in economic projects across the continent.

By nominating Hanan Morsy, Egypt may be attempting to undermine Algeria’s influence in the AU and cement its own leadership within Africa’s governance structures.

3. Could External Pressures Be Influencing Egypt’s Decision?

a) The Role of Gulf Countries in Africa

Gulf nations—particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE—have been expanding their influence in Africa, both economically and politically. Egypt’s close alliances with these countries may have played a role in its decision to seek a stronger foothold in the AU, possibly as part of a broader regional agenda.

b) Adjusting to Global Geopolitical Shifts

With increasing competition from China, Russia, and Turkey in Africa, Egypt may be adapting its foreign policy to ensure it remains a key player in African affairs. Its nomination of a candidate for the AU Commission could be part of a broader strategy to align itself with new power dynamics and reinforce its position on the continent.

4. Could This Be a Diplomatic Bargaining Strategy?

Sometimes, countries use nomination battles in international organizations as a bargaining tool rather than a genuine attempt to win a position. Egypt’s move may be aimed at:

  • Extracting concessions from Algeria in other regional matters, whether within the AU or in North African affairs.
  • Strengthening its negotiating position in future AU decisions.
  • Testing the balance of power within the AU by gauging the level of support for Algeria’s candidate.

Such tactics are common in multilateral diplomacy, where candidacies are sometimes used to influence election outcomes rather than to secure the position itself.

5. What Does This Mean for Egypt-Algeria Relations?

a) Potential Diplomatic Tensions

While Egypt and Algeria have historically maintained strategic ties, this move could strain their relationship, especially if Algeria views it as a betrayal or an abandonment of previous commitments.

b) Continued Cooperation Despite Differences

However, given their shared interests in regional stability, it is unlikely that this development will lead to a major diplomatic fallout. Issues like North African security, economic ties, and regional cooperation will still necessitate ongoing dialogue between the two nations.

c) A Sign of Intensified Competition Within the AU

More broadly, this incident reflects shifting power dynamics within the African Union, as regional heavyweights like Algeria and Egypt compete for influence. This could reshape alliances within the AU, prompting other nations to take clearer stances on Egypt and Algeria’s competing visions for Africa.

Conclusion: Tactical Move or Strategic Repositioning?

Egypt’s sudden decision to field its own candidate for the AU Commission is more than just a minor diplomatic shift—it is a strategic maneuver reflecting deeper geopolitical calculations.

  • If this is merely a negotiation tactic, we may soon see behind-the-scenes deals between Egypt and Algeria.
  • If it represents a long-term policy shift, it could signal a more competitive relationship between the two nations within African affairs.

The upcoming AU elections will serve as a key test for both countries, revealing the extent of their diplomatic reach and ability to rally support among African nations.




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