Relations between Algeria and Mali are currently experiencing a period of heightened tensions, marked by mutual accusations and deep disagreements over the management of security crises in the Sahel. This situation reflects not only bilateral disputes but also the geopolitical and strategic challenges affecting the entire region.
Context and Escalation of Tensions
On January 1, 2025, Mali’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement accusing Algeria of supporting terrorist groups and interfering in its internal affairs. These allegations followed remarks by Algeria’s Foreign Minister, Ahmed Attaf, who opposed the categorization of political movements, signatories of the 2015 Algiers Peace Accord, as terrorist groups.
The Malian government, led by a military junta that came to power through the May 2021 coup, dismissed these statements as "unnecessary lessons" and accused Algeria of complicity with destabilizing actors in the Sahel. This war of words takes place in the context of already fragile relations, which have been deteriorating since Mali’s unilateral withdrawal from the Algiers Accords in January 2024.
The Algiers Accords Crisis and Its Implications
The Algiers Peace Accords, signed in 2015 under Algerian mediation, were designed as a political framework to stabilize northern Mali, which has been plagued by Tuareg rebellions. However, Mali’s withdrawal from these accords has undermined peace efforts and exacerbated tensions.
For Algeria, this decision represents a threat to regional stability as it nullifies prospects for inclusive dialogue between the Malian government and northern populations, particularly the Tuareg of Azawad. Algeria fears that labeling these political movements as terrorist groups could worsen the situation and trigger a cycle of violence.
Algeria’s Motivations: National Security and Regional Stability
In response to the deteriorating situation in Mali, Algeria has adopted a position based on security, humanitarian, and strategic imperatives:
- Preserving Internal SecurityProlonged conflict in northern Mali could have direct consequences for Algerian territory, including an influx of refugees, increased cross-border criminal activities, and heightened threats from terrorist groups.
- Protecting Tuareg PopulationsThe cultural and familial ties between Malian Tuaregs and communities in southern Algeria give Algeria’s position a humanitarian dimension. Any violence against these populations could destabilize social cohesion in Algeria's border regions.
- Defending the Peace AccordsAlgeria views the Algiers Accords as a cornerstone for achieving lasting stability in the Sahel. Mali’s challenge to these agreements undermines international efforts and casts doubt on the credibility of mediation mechanisms.
Mali’s Position: Militarization and Controversial Alliances
Mali, bolstered by recent alliances with actors like the Wagner Group and Turkey, appears to favor a military solution to the conflict in the north. This strategy, reinforced by the acquisition of Turkish drones, underscores Bamako’s reliance on force.
However, the history of conflicts in the Sahel demonstrates the limitations of a purely military approach. Algeria believes that this orientation risks exacerbating tensions and undermining any chance of a political resolution.
Between Perceived Interference and Preventive Policy
While Bamako accuses Algeria of interference, Algeria defends its actions as necessary to protect its borders and ensure regional security. Unlike traditional interference, Algeria’s strategy is rooted in preserving the Algiers Accords and promoting inclusive dialogue.
This approach is based on two principles:
- Respect for Sovereignty: Encouraging a political solution without directly interfering in Mali’s internal affairs.
- Regional Stability: Preventing Malian tensions from spilling over into neighboring countries, especially Algeria.
Challenges and Prospects for a Lasting Solution
To avoid a destructive escalation, constructive cooperation between Mali and Algeria is essential. This involves:
- Reviving Dialogue: Reintegrating the former signatories of the Algiers Accords into a renewed political process.
- Strengthening Security Cooperation: Sharing intelligence and coordinating efforts to neutralize armed groups.
- Regional Development: Addressing the root causes of conflict, such as poverty, social exclusion, and injustice.
Conclusion
The current crisis between Mali and Algeria highlights the complex challenges of governance and security in the Sahel. While Bamako persists with a controversial military strategy, Algeria continues to advocate for a political and inclusive approach.
However, Mali’s intransigence risks prolonging instability and jeopardizing peace in an already fragile region. Only a concerted solution, respectful of the interests of all stakeholders, can restore stability and prevent a large-scale humanitarian and security disaster.
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