The West is repeating the Ukrainian pattern in Western Sahara: could Algeria be prompted to use force to preserve its vital interests?

The growing recognition by Western powers of Morocco's autonomy plan for the Western Sahara is exacerbating tensions in North Africa. Faced with what it perceives as a growing threat, Algeria may be prompted to resort to force to protect its vital interests. This article explores the reasons behind this worrying possibility and examines the potential implications for the region.

A Disturbing Parallel: Ukraine and Western Sahara

There are striking similarities between the conflicts in Ukraine and Western Sahara. Russia, in 2022, justified its military intervention in Ukraine by several factors. It perceived Ukraine as an essential buffer zone against NATO expansion, a direct threat to its national security. Moreover, Moscow's historical and cultural ties with Ukraine, the protection of Russian-speaking minorities and the desire to maintain its regional influence motivated it to act.

Similarly, Algeria sees Western support for Morocco's claim to Western Sahara as a direct threat to its national security. The regional dynamic is exacerbated by recent normalization agreements between Morocco and Israel, which include recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. This situation is perceived by Algiers as a strategic encirclement.

Reasons for possible Algerian intervention

Moroccan Expansionism and National Security

The main dispute between Algeria and Morocco probably lies in Morocco's expansionist policy, conceptualized by Allal El Fassi (of the El Istiqlal party) in the form of the “Greater Morocco” theory. This concept, developed by the Moroccan government in the 1950s and 1960s with the support of the laboratories of the SDEC (former name of the DGSE, the French foreign intelligence service), is a theory with no historical basis, claiming that Morocco lays claim to the Western Sahara, Mauritania, part of the Algerian Sahara (to the west) and a portion of Mali (to the north-west).

 

The repercussions of this expansionist policy were devastating for the region. They became apparent as early as the Sand War in 1963, when Morocco attacked Algeria in an attempt to “recover” territories it had not had the courage to claim from France. Historically, Morocco's borders have never extended beyond the Oued Noun to the south and the Oued Melouya to the east, as meticulously explained by Doctor Mohamed Doumir in a video I invite you to consult.

Algeria sees Western support for Moroccan rule of the Western Sahara as a direct threat to its security. The perception of Moroccan expansionism is reinforced by the normalization agreements between Morocco and Israel, which include recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara.

Support for the Polisario Front and the Principles of Self-Determination

Algeria has long supported the Polisario Front and the Saharawi people's right to self-determination. Algeria hosts hundreds of thousands of Sahrawi refugees, who have fled the massacres perpetrated by the Moroccan army, which is guilty of genocide. Algeria therefore has a moral responsibility towards a population it has been hosting for 50 years.

In addition to the humanitarian dimension, there is also a strategic dimension to the relationship with the SADR (Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic): Algeria and the SADR share the same enemy, which has its sights set on Algerian and Sahrawi territory. Rejecting the colonial fait-accompli in Western Sahara is a vital necessity for both Algeria and the SADR.

Consequently, the marginalization of this cause by Western recognition of Moroccan sovereignty is prompting Algiers to consider more muscular measures to defend its foreign policy principles and regional influence.

Geopolitical implications and regional balance

The Saharan issue has always been a major stake for Americans and Westerners, who did not want to see the birth of an independent state close to the USSR on the Atlantic coast. Kissinger played a key role in drawing up the partition plan for Western Sahara between Morocco and Mauritania (cf. the Madrid agreements in 1975).

The Western Sahara is therefore strategic for stability in North Africa. Western support for Morocco threatens this balance, and Algeria could intervene to re-establish its strategic position in the region, in order to durably limit the interventionism of Western powers in Western Sahara.

Military Response Scenarios

Direct support for the Polisario Front

While Algeria does not currently support the Polisario Front militarily, recent developments could encourage Algeria to activate military support for the Polisario Front, providing weapons, sophisticated training, as well as logistical and intelligence assistance.

Algerian military support could profoundly change the balance of power and give the Polisario Front a tactical and strategic advantage over its Moroccan adversary, enabling the Polisario to better position itself in future peace negotiations.

Asymmetric Warfare Operations

Algeria could resort to asymmetrical warfare operations, using special forces and guerrilla tactics to harass Moroccan positions, a strategy reminiscent of the methods used during the mythical battle of Amgala II, which left the Moroccan army deeply traumatized.

Regional and international implications

Reactions of the Western Powers

The USA, France and other Western powers could react strongly to an Algerian intervention, stepping up their support for Morocco with increased military aid and intense diplomatic pressure on Algiers.

This scenario does not seem plausible for two reasons:

1. These powers have major interests in Algeria, and would not jeopardize these investments to come to Morocco's rescue.
2. The intervention of these powers would automatically entail the intervention of Algeria's allies (China and Russia).

Impact on regional security

A military escalation in the Western Sahara could destabilize Morocco, which is in the throes of social and economic difficulties. Large-scale military defeats could have a lasting effect on the morale of the Moroccan army and consequently on the morale of the Moroccan people, who are boosted by outrageous propaganda that revels in cowardly assassinations of Saharan and Mauritanian civilians in the Western Sahara using combat drones. On the other hand, an increase in the intensity of the conflict could have disastrous consequences for Moroccan finances, already weakened by an abysmal level of foreign debt. 

Moreover, military escalation could set the whole region ablaze. Neighboring countries such as Mauritania and Mali could be drawn into the conflict, either directly, or through increased refugee flows and terrorist activities sponsored by Moroccan drug-trafficking networks.

Conclusion

Algeria, seeing its security concerns ignored and faced with Moroccan expansionism perceived as supported by the West, could indeed envisage military intervention in Western Sahara. The implications of such action would be profound, both for the region and for international relations, underlining the need for a concerted, diplomatic resolution of the conflict.

Even if the military option does not appear realistic for the time being, Algeria will have to be more proactive in defending its vital interests.

Belgacem Merbah

X: https://x.com/PatriotsDZ

Références

• Boukhars, A. (2012). "The Paranoid Neighbor: Algeria and the Conflict in Mali". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
• Chaudet, D. (2014). "La Crimée, l'Ukraine et le projet de Poutine". Le Monde Diplomatique.
• Chikhi, L. (2020). "The Algerian-Moroccan Rivalry: Strategic Implications for the Maghreb". Middle East Institute.
• Götz, E. (2016). "Russia, the West, and the Ukraine Crisis". Contemporary Politics, 22(3), 301-323.
• Mankoff, J. (2014). "Russia’s Latest Land Grab: How Putin Won Crimea and Lost Ukraine". Foreign Affairs, 93(3), 60-68.
• Mundy, J. (2006). "Autonomy & Intifadah: New Horizons in Western Saharan Nationalism". Review of African Political Economy, 33(108), 255-267.
• Treisman, D. (2016). "Why Putin Took Crimea". Foreign Affairs, 95(3), 47-54.
• Volman, D. (2009). "The United States, Morocco and the Western Sahara Conflict". Review of African Political Economy, 36(119), 651-655.
• Zoubir, Y. H. (2020). "The Sahara Conflict: Regional and International Implications". Journal of North African Studies, 25(4), 560-579.
• Zoubir, Y. H., & Volman, D. (2010). "The Geopolitics of the Western Sahara Conflict". Third World Quarterly, 31(6), 931-949.