The official visit that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is expected to make to Algeria on July 20 represents a major diplomatic event. More than a routine bilateral meeting with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the visit appears to mark the culmination of a gradual reconciliation process between two countries that have experienced one of the deepest crises in their modern relations.
A Crisis Triggered by Spain's Shift on Western Sahara
To understand the significance of this visit, it is necessary to revisit the origins of the diplomatic crisis that erupted between Algiers and Madrid in 2022.
For decades, Spain had maintained a relatively balanced position regarding the Western Sahara dispute, an issue of particular importance to Algeria. This long-standing policy changed dramatically when Pedro Sánchez's government publicly endorsed Morocco's autonomy plan as the basis for resolving the conflict.
From Algeria's perspective, the move represented a departure from the neutrality that Spain, as the former colonial power in the territory, had traditionally upheld. Algeria responded swiftly by suspending the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness and Cooperation signed in 2002, restricting commercial relations, and significantly downgrading political ties.
The crisis served as a powerful reminder of Algeria's ability to leverage its economic and geopolitical influence in defense of what it considers fundamental strategic interests.
A Heavy Economic Price for Spain
One of the most visible consequences of the diplomatic rift was its economic impact.
According to figures cited by Spanish media outlets, Spanish companies are estimated to have suffered losses exceeding €3.2 billion as a result of the commercial restrictions imposed by Algeria. Spanish exports to the Algerian market plummeted between 2021 and 2023, affecting a wide range of sectors, including manufacturing, industrial equipment, construction materials, and agribusiness.
Meanwhile, countries such as Italy, Turkey, and China strengthened their positions in the Algerian market, taking advantage of opportunities left vacant by Spanish firms. This situation generated increasing pressure from Spain's business community for a normalization of relations with Algeria.
Algeria Separated Politics from Energy
One of the most remarkable aspects of Algeria's management of the crisis was its decision to continue honoring its natural gas contracts with Spain.
Despite severe political tensions, Algeria maintained energy deliveries, particularly through the Medgaz pipeline. This approach enabled Algeria to preserve its reputation as a reliable energy supplier during a period of significant uncertainty in European energy markets following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Through this strategy, Algeria conveyed two key messages:
- Firmness regarding political and sovereignty-related matters.
- Respect for international commercial and energy commitments.
By doing so, Algeria was able to exert diplomatic pressure while preserving its credibility as a strategic partner for Europe.
Why Spain Is Seeking a Rebalancing Today
Four years after Pedro Sánchez's last visit to Algiers, the regional and international context has evolved considerably.
Spanish policymakers appear to have recognized that an excessively Morocco-centered Maghreb policy carries significant risks. While Morocco remains an important partner for Spain on migration and security issues, Algeria continues to be indispensable for several strategic reasons:
- A major supplier of natural gas.
- A leading military power in North Africa.
- A key actor in regional security and Sahel stabilization.
- An important economic and investment partner.
As a result, Spanish diplomacy now seems focused on restoring a more balanced relationship between Rabat and Algiers.
The recent visit by Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares to Algeria clearly reflected this effort to prepare the ground for a renewed political dialogue at the highest level.
Towards the Reactivation of the Friendship Treaty?
One of the principal objectives of the upcoming meeting between Tebboune and Sánchez may be the formal restoration of the Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness and Cooperation suspended since 2022.
Such a move would send a strong signal to businesses and investors on both sides of the Mediterranean. It could pave the way for:
- Increased bilateral investment.
- The recovery of trade flows.
- Enhanced cooperation in the energy sector.
- Stronger political and security coordination on Mediterranean issues.
For Spain, rebuilding trust with Algeria has become a strategic necessity. For Algeria, the challenge lies in securing guarantees that its key interests will be respected in the future.
Western Sahara Remains the Main Point of Divergence
Despite the recent improvement in bilateral relations, Western Sahara remains the most sensitive issue between the two countries.
Pedro Sánchez's visit comes as the Spanish Parliament examines a proposal aimed at facilitating Spanish citizenship for many Sahrawis born under Spanish administration. Although the initiative does not alter Spain's official position on the conflict, it highlights the continuing importance of the Sahrawi issue within Spanish political debates.
For Algeria, any development related to Western Sahara will continue to be closely monitored.
A Diplomatic Victory for Algeria?
Beyond the bilateral dimension, Sánchez's visit can also be interpreted as evidence of Algeria's growing diplomatic weight in the region.
After years of tensions, Spain is returning to Algiers with a clear determination to rebuild a long-term strategic partnership. This development reflects Madrid's recognition of Algeria's crucial geopolitical, energy, and security role in the Western Mediterranean and North Africa.
The July 20 meeting could therefore mark the beginning of a new chapter in Algerian-Spanish relations, one based on mutual interests, strategic pragmatism, and renewed dialogue.
The key question remains whether this rapprochement will be sufficient to permanently heal the wounds caused by the Western Sahara dispute, or whether underlying disagreements will continue to influence relations between the two countries in the years ahead.
By Belgacem Merbah
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