What was presented as a triumph of diplomacy — a ceasefire between Iran and Israel — is, according to seasoned observers, a geopolitical trap meticulously crafted to serve Tel Aviv’s military and political interests. Far from being a genuine step toward peace, the truce orchestrated by the Trump administration came at a moment when the Israeli military, overwhelmed by the precision and effectiveness of Iranian strikes, was on the brink of collapse.
A Ceasefire to Rescue the Israeli Army
The timing of the ceasefire was no coincidence. It was enforced almost immediately after Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on the U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in response to a limited American air raid targeting three Iranian nuclear sites. While the American narrative emphasized “de-escalation,” the real reason was far more strategic: Israel’s military was faltering.
Israel’s much-hyped Iron Dome system had been saturated, ammunition stockpiles were critically low, and troop morale was crumbling. Military leadership was reportedly losing control of multiple fronts, and the situation risked devolving into open disarray. In this context, a ceasefire became not a diplomatic necessity, but a lifeline for an embattled Israeli army.
Israel’s Strategy: Drag the U.S. into a Long-Term Conflict
Far from signaling an end to the conflict, the truce marks a new phase in Israel’s strategy: to extend the confrontation through covert warfare, psychological operations, and destabilization tactics. According to insiders, Tel Aviv intends to ignite unrest within Iran by sponsoring terror attacks and cyber warfare while publicly accusing Tehran of violating the ceasefire.
Israel’s powerful lobbying apparatus in Washington is pressuring Donald Trump to adopt an even more hardline stance, encouraging Arab regimes to provoke Iran diplomatically and to portray Tehran as the party undermining peace. The long-term goal is to dismantle the Iranian state — replicating the Iraqi, Libyan, and Syrian scenarios — thereby securing Israel’s regional supremacy and creating the conditions to project its power further into North Africa, starting with Morocco.
From the Gulf to the Maghreb: Israel’s Expanding Influence
The dismantling of Iran, should it happen, would not be the endgame. Instead, it would open the door for Israel to expand its influence across the region, especially into North Africa. With the normalization of ties with Morocco, Tel Aviv is already laying the groundwork for deeper security and intelligence cooperation in the Maghreb.
The ultimate aim is to control maritime chokepoints, establish forward bases near the Sahel and Sahara, and apply strategic pressure on Algeria — the last remaining sovereign counterweight to Israeli-Western designs on the southern Mediterranean.
Trump: From Peace Candidate to Wartime President
Donald Trump, who campaigned on the promise of restoring peace and ending foreign entanglements, now finds himself pulled deeper into a conflict that primarily benefits Netanyahu. While the ceasefire may offer a brief political reprieve, it further alienates an American public already disillusioned with endless wars and wary of being manipulated into yet another Middle Eastern quagmire.
Netanyahu, by contrast, is motivated by sheer political survival. The Israeli prime minister seeks to indefinitely delay elections, avoid prison on corruption charges, and rule under the cover of emergency powers — a strategy reminiscent of his Ukrainian counterpart’s approach to wartime governance.
Gulf States May Reap the Whirlwind
The Gulf regimes that aligned themselves with the Trump-Netanyahu axis may soon regret their gamble. The billions of dollars they’ve funneled into U.S. and Israeli coffers will be used to rearm Israel, while their own territories remain vulnerable. Iranian missiles remain pointed not only at Israel, but also at American military assets and economic infrastructure in Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Tehran has so far demonstrated restraint, using only a fraction of its ballistic arsenal. However, in the event of further provocation, Iran may respond with overwhelming force — including the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would disrupt global energy markets and trigger a cascade of economic crises across the world.
Russia Sends Its Own Message
While the U.S. tried to lure Moscow into a diplomatic trap, Russia responded in kind — not with words, but with missiles. In a dramatic show of force, Moscow launched a wave of drone and missile strikes on Kyiv, NATO’s frontline outpost, sending a stark warning to the European powers of France, Germany, and the UK not to miscalculate Russian resolve or ignore its geopolitical red lines.
As the U.S. struggles to contain the rise of rival powers, Russia and China are asserting their influence, signaling the dawn of a multipolar world — one where American hegemony is increasingly fragile.
Conclusion: A Fragile Pause in an Ongoing War
This so-called ceasefire is nothing more than a pause — a temporary reprieve in a much larger, unresolved conflict. Rather than marking the end of hostilities, it represents a tactical recalibration. The region remains on the brink, and the possibility of renewed, expanded warfare looms large.
As Israel continues its provocations and the U.S. doubles down on flawed strategies, the Middle East may yet become the flashpoint for a broader conflict — one that stretches from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, and even into Europe. The world is inching closer to the abyss, led by leaders who gamble with war as if it were a political game, oblivious to the global catastrophe they are courting.
By Belgacem Merbah
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