The diplomatic crisis between Mali and Algeria: Beyond the drone, the geostrategic stakes of a the TSGP gas pipeline

 The recent diplomatic flare-up between Mali and Algeria is far more than a mere border dispute or an isolated military incident. At its core lies a deeper and more strategic struggle—one that revolves around the future of energy in the Sahel and West Africa. The competing visions for this future are embodied in two massive projects: the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), championed by Algeria, and the Nigeria-Morocco Atlantic gas pipeline.

A Crisis That Reveals Regional Fractures

In early April 2025, Algeria issued a firm diplomatic note condemning Mali's "baseless allegations" after the Algerian military shot down a Malian drone that had allegedly violated Algerian airspace for the third time since August 2024. Algeria, citing radar evidence, maintained that its response was both measured and necessary.

Bamako’s reaction, however, was not limited to protesting the drone incident. The Malian transitional government accused Algeria of colluding with terrorist groups—a charge Algeria denounced as "absurd" and "irresponsible," pointing to its long-standing and well-documented efforts in combating terrorism across the Sahel.

Yet, these accusations hint at a deeper game—a geopolitical recalibration where energy, security, and influence converge.

The Trans-Saharan Pipeline: Algeria’s Strategic Bet

The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) is an ambitious project set to span over 4,000 kilometers, transporting Nigerian gas through Niger and Algeria to Europe. It emerges at a time when the European Union is urgently seeking to diversify its energy sources away from Russia, making the project increasingly attractive.

Despite recent political turbulence in the Sahel, Niger has chosen to strengthen its cooperation with Algeria—particularly on energy and security—unlike its partners in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), namely Mali and Burkina Faso. Technical meetings and bilateral projects between Algiers and Niamey are multiplying, signaling a growing regional alignment that some external actors may view with concern.

Nigeria-Morocco Pipeline: An Overambitious Gamble?

In contrast, Morocco has been promoting its own project: a 6,000-kilometer offshore pipeline along the West African coast, connecting 13 countries before reaching Europe. Officially framed as a royal initiative launched in 2016, it is widely perceived as a rival to the TSGP.

However, this project faces considerable obstacles:

• Territorial disputes: The pipeline is proposed to pass through Western Sahara—an area recognized by Nigeria as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). The legal and diplomatic ramifications are profound.

• Unrealistic economics: The so-called transit rights for the 13 countries could absorb up to 91% of the gas, raising serious questions about the project's profitability.

• Political and security risks: Many of the countries along the route are plagued by instability and poverty, making both the construction and long-term operation of the pipeline uncertain.

• Lack of funding: Morocco has yet to raise even the $100 million needed for a feasibility study, let alone the estimated $50 billion required for full construction. Despite heavy promotion, no major international backers have stepped in.

Moreover, the technical challenge is immense. A 6,000-kilometer underwater pipeline has never been built—and perhaps for good reason.

A Shadow War of Influence

Some observers trace the origins of the Nigeria-Morocco pipeline to a broader strategy of undermining the Algeria-led project. Notably, the 2015 allegiance of Boko Haram to the Islamic State coincided suspiciously with intensified Moroccan diplomatic engagement in Nigeria. Analysts have long pointed to the alleged connections between Moroccan trafficking networks and militant groups in the Sahel—suggesting that regional destabilization may have been used to block the TSGP’s progress.

From this perspective, Morocco is seen not as an independent actor, but rather as a proxy of French influence in Africa—a continuation of the neo-colonial "Françafrique" model. While marketed as South-South cooperation, the Moroccan venture appears to serve Western geopolitical interests, with Moroccan companies operating under the umbrella of French capital and control.

Algeria’s Pipeline: Realistic, Funded, and Technically Sound

In contrast, the TSGP offers a more grounded and feasible path forward:

• It crosses only two countries—Niger and Algeria—limiting both costs and risks.

• Transit fees are minimal (around 14%), preserving economic viability.

• Algeria, with its mature gas infrastructure and commercial expertise, is well-equipped to handle the project.

• Nigeria and Algeria possess the financial capacity to fund the pipeline independently.

• Several European countries, including Germany and Poland, have already expressed interest in participating.

Security-wise, the Nigerian military has made significant gains against Boko Haram in the north, while Algerian and Russian cooperation has helped stabilize large parts of Mali. Algeria has also pledged to secure the Nigerien segment of the pipeline until local forces are fully trained and equipped.

Conclusion: Gas as the New Geopolitical Frontier

The crisis between Algeria and Mali is a symptom of a larger battle playing out in Africa—one that goes beyond drones, borders, or military skirmishes. It is about shaping the future of African energy, sovereignty, and regional integration.

The TSGP represents a pragmatic, technically sound, and strategically coherent project. It reinforces African interdependence without sacrificing sovereignty, and positions Algeria and Nigeria as central players in the continent's energy narrative.

Meanwhile, the Morocco-led alternative remains mired in diplomatic, technical, and financial uncertainties. For now, the Trans-Saharan pipeline appears not only more realistic—but far more aligned with the long-term interests of Africa and its global partners.

In the end, energy is power. And in Africa’s unfolding chessboard, the pipelines are more than infrastructure—they are the arteries of a future still being written.

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By Belgacem Merbah