France’s Waning Influence in Africa: A Strategic Gamble with Morocco and Israel

France, once a key global power, now faces a harsh reality: its influence in Africa has collapsed. Expelled from multiple African countries under humiliating circumstances, it has lost access to strategic resources and the economic advantages it once derived from its former colonies. Military bases have been dismantled, French companies have seen their privileges reduced, and exports to Africa have plummeted due to new taxes and restrictions.

This forced retreat has triggered a deep crisis in Paris. The French economy, which long benefited from exploiting Africa’s wealth, is now faltering under this new reality. Diplomatically, the situation is no better. Some European Union member states are even questioning France’s status as a major power, suggesting that its permanent seat on the UN Security Council could be transferred to Germany.

In an attempt to recover, Paris is desperately seeking to reposition itself. One of its strategies involves forming a strategic alliance with Morocco and Israel, aiming to reshape the geopolitical landscape of North Africa and the Sahel to its advantage. However, behind this effort lies a perilous plan with potentially devastating consequences.

A Tripartite Alliance with Troubling Objectives

This rapprochement between France, Morocco, and Israel serves multiple objectives, each benefiting a different member of the alliance:

Eliminating the Sahrawi Question

• Paris and Rabat aim to impose Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, bypassing international resolutions.
• The occupation of Sahrawi territories still controlled by the Polisario Front and the isolation of independence movements are at the core of this strategy.
• Israel, as Rabat’s ally, provides technological and military support to strengthen this control.

Undermining Algeria

• Paris and Tel Aviv view Algiers as the main obstacle to their regional ambitions.
• A campaign of disinformation and diplomatic pressure seeks to tarnish Algeria’s international reputation.
• Increasing Franco-Moroccan military maneuvers near Algeria’s borders serve as an intimidation tactic.

Regaining a Strategic Foothold in Africa

• The alliance with Morocco offers France a potential way back into the Sahel, after being expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
• Israel, eager to expand its presence in Africa, sees this partnership as an opportunity to extend its influence.

However, this risky endeavor faces geopolitical realities that could doom it to failure before it even takes shape.

A Double Conspiracy: The Eradication of the Sahrawi and Palestinian Causes

This geopolitical project extends beyond Western Sahara. It aligns with a broader vision where the elimination of the Palestinian cause goes hand in hand with the suppression of the Sahrawi struggle.

In Palestine, Israel and its allies—including the U.S. and certain Arab nations that have normalized relations with Tel Aviv—are using the Gaza war to impose a final solution:

• The eradication of Palestinian resistance.
• The expulsion of entire populations.
• The annexation of the West Bank.

In Western Sahara, a similar scenario is unfolding:

• The definitive imposition of Moroccan control, with active support from France and Israel.
• The political and physical elimination of Sahrawi resistance.
• The opening of the territory to foreign investment for resource exploitation.

Recent French decisions, particularly its growing support for Morocco’s autonomy plan, confirm that this dual agenda is well underway.

Algeria: An Impenetrable Barrier to French and Israeli Ambitions

However, one crucial factor underestimated by these powers is Algeria’s resilience. Recent history has shown that Algiers does not back down from threats, and its diplomatic and military strength makes it an essential player in the region.

Aware of its strategic role, Algeria has adopted a containment strategy against the France-Morocco-Israel maneuvers. This is reflected in:

• Increased support for the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination, with reinforced backing for the Polisario Front.
• A firm stance on the Palestinian issue, remaining one of the last Arab states to reject normalization with Israel.
• Strengthening its military capabilities and strategic alliances (notably with Russia and China) to deter any interference.

In this context, French and Moroccan military provocations, such as recent maneuvers near Algeria’s border, appear to be tests aimed at gauging Algiers’ reaction. But rather than intimidating Algeria, these moves only confirm the regional threat, pushing the country to prepare for all eventualities.

An Alliance Doomed to Fail?

While France, Morocco, and Israel hope this trilateral cooperation will allow them to impose their will, current geopolitical dynamics suggest otherwise:

• France is in decline, weakened by its setbacks in Africa and challenged within Europe.
• Morocco, facing social and economic crises, struggles to assert its authority over Western Sahara despite Western backing.
• Israel, mired in a war that increasingly isolates it, is seeing its global image deteriorate and its alliances weaken.

In contrast, Algeria and the resistance forces in Palestine and Western Sahara possess significant advantages, including historical legitimacy and a resilience that has thwarted numerous plots in the past.

This hegemonic project, built on fragile foundations, is likely to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions and the determination of the peoples opposing it. If history has taught us anything, it is that imperialist ambitions, no matter how sophisticated, always end up crashing against the will of free nations.

Belgacem Merbah