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The Introduction of Attack Drones: A Strategic Turning Point in the Conflict Between Morocco and the Polisario Front

The long-standing conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front could witness a new escalation with the introduction of attack drones into the Sahrawi army’s arsenal. Until now, Morocco had a clear technological advantage due to its use of armed drones, primarily supplied by Israel and Turkey. However, recent statements by Sahrawi diplomat Brahim Mokhtar suggest that the Polisario also intends to acquire this military technology, potentially reshaping the balance of power on the ground.

Morocco’s Use of Drones: A Strategic Advantage

Since the resumption of hostilities in November 2020, Morocco has intensified its use of drones to target Polisario positions in the Western Sahara. Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israeli Harop loitering munitions have allowed Moroccan forces to conduct precision strikes on Sahrawi fighters, significantly reducing casualties among Moroccan troops.

These attacks have forced the Polisario to adapt its tactics, limiting large-scale troop movements and favoring stealthier operations. However, the lack of effective anti-drone defenses has meant that Moroccan strikes have significantly weakened the Sahrawi army’s operational capabilities.

Polisario’s Acquisition of Drones: Toward a New Military Balance?

Brahim Mokhtar’s statement suggests that the Polisario Front is seriously considering acquiring attack drones, which have become increasingly accessible on the international market. These drones could be obtained from states opposed to Rabat or through indirect means, allowing the Polisario to strike strategic Moroccan targets, including military bases and infrastructure far beyond the traditional battlefield.

If the Polisario successfully integrates this technology into its military strategy, it could challenge Morocco’s air dominance and create a new deterrence dynamic. This would force Rabat to rethink its defense mechanisms, likely investing in anti-drone systems and adjusting its military positioning.

An Inevitable Escalation of the Conflict?

The introduction of attack drones by the Polisario could mark a new phase in the conflict, with a heightened risk of military escalation. Rather than a war of fixed positions, the confrontation could evolve into a high-intensity asymmetric conflict, where each side attempts to neutralize the other’s technological capabilities.

If the UN Security Council fails to impose a lasting political solution, there is a high risk of increased strikes and retaliatory attacks, further destabilizing the region. The issue of the self-determination referendum, which Morocco continues to block with French support, could become even more contentious if the military balance shifts in favor of the Polisario.

France’s Role and the Geopolitical Dimension of the Conflict

As Brahim Mokhtar pointed out, France plays a crucial role in maintaining the status quo. Paris, seeking to retain influence in Africa after setbacks in the Sahel, increasingly relies on Morocco to safeguard its economic and strategic interests on the continent.

By actively supporting Rabat, particularly at the UN Security Council, France prevents any resolution favorable to the Polisario and obstructs the organization of a self-determination referendum. This stance fuels Sahrawi frustration and could push the Polisario toward a more aggressive strategy, including the use of attack drones against Moroccan interests.

Conclusion: Toward a New Balance of Power?

If the Polisario Front officially deploys attack drones, it would mark a decisive shift in the conflict. Morocco would no longer be able to rely solely on its air superiority to pressure Sahrawi forces.

However, the introduction of these autonomous weapons would likely fuel a cycle of violence, making a peaceful resolution even more elusive. Given this rising threat, the international community, particularly the UN, must accelerate its efforts to find a political solution before the conflict takes on an even more destructive dimension.




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