Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Moroccan regime has been experiencing a state of confusion and uncertainty. Rabat had hoped that Washington would continue supporting its claim of sovereignty over Western Sahara, but it now finds itself under intense pressure. At the heart of this diplomatic dilemma is a controversial U.S. plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to Moroccan territory, a proposal reported by both Israeli and Western sources.
From Celebration to Uncertainty: A Shift in Morocco’s Expectations
In 2020, Trump’s decision to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara was seen as a major diplomatic victory for the royal palace. In exchange, Rabat agreed to normalize its relations with Israel as part of the Abraham Accords.
However, with Trump’s return to power, Morocco’s expectations have clashed with a new reality: the former U.S. president appears less concerned about Western Sahara and more focused on implementing his controversial plan for Gaza. According to Spanish journalist Ignacio Cembrero, the royal palace is now hesitant to ask Washington to reaffirm its commitment to Morocco’s interests, fearing entanglement in a major diplomatic scandal with unpredictable consequences.
A Telling Silence and Delayed Official Response
One of the most striking signs of Morocco’s predicament is the government’s prolonged silence regarding the reports of a potential Palestinian relocation to Moroccan territory. Unlike other Arab nations—such as Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—that quickly rejected the idea, Rabat took nearly a week before making its position known.
Morocco’s name was explicitly mentioned by Israel Bachar, Israel’s Consul General for the Southwest Pacific region in the United States, as a possible destination for displaced Palestinians. Despite this, the Moroccan government refrained from issuing an immediate rejection or condemnation of the plan. Instead, it waited for a meeting between its Foreign Minister, Nasser Bourita, and his Iraqi counterpart before releasing a joint statement.
This cautious approach highlights the regime’s diplomatic dilemma: how to maintain its privileged ties with Washington and Tel Aviv while avoiding a political backlash at home and across the Arab world?
A Plan B for Western Sahara?
Amid uncertainty over U.S. support, Morocco is exploring alternative strategies to solidify its control over Western Sahara. According to Ignacio Cembrero, Rabat is considering organizing an international conference in the UAE in April, with backing from several European countries, including France. The goal is to secure broader recognition of Morocco’s claims over Western Sahara and persuade reluctant states like the UK and Italy to align with its position.
However, this initiative has not generated the expected enthusiasm. According to Hugh Lovatt, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, Morocco is exerting pressure on its European partners to support its stance, but so far, these efforts have yielded limited success.
Madrid and Washington: What’s at Stake for Rabat?
One of the key factors in this equation is Spain’s position. Madrid has recently strengthened its ties with Rabat, and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez remains a crucial actor in this issue. His support or opposition to Morocco’s diplomatic maneuvering could significantly impact Rabat’s strategy.
As for the United States, the Trump administration appears to have shifted its priorities. For Washington, Western Sahara is now a secondary concern, overshadowed by its efforts to address the crisis in Gaza. This change in focus puts Morocco in a difficult position: openly opposing U.S. demands could strain bilateral relations, while even partial acceptance of Trump’s plan could trigger widespread public outrage in Morocco and across the Arab world.
A Risky Diplomatic Gamble
Morocco now finds itself in a strategic deadlock. Its alliance with the United States, once considered a key diplomatic asset, could backfire if Washington insists on the relocation of Palestinians to Moroccan territory.
On the other hand, resisting U.S. pressure could lead to a cooling of relations with the White House and, by extension, a loss of influence over the Western Sahara issue.
Can the Moroccan monarchy navigate this diplomatic minefield without compromising its interests? Or will it be forced to make painful concessions? The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the future of Morocco’s foreign policy.
Comments
Post a Comment