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Regime Change in Syria and Emerging Geopolitical Dynamics

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the region has been a stage for complex geopolitical stakes involving regional and global powers. The gradual collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime has led to a new redistribution of influence, with a likely agreement between Turkey, Russia, and Iran to enable a controlled transfer of power. This strategic shift also raises questions about Israel's attitude, particularly regarding its annexation policy in the Golan Heights, which aligns with its broader ambition to achieve the project of Greater Israel.

1. The Key Players: A Delicate Balance of Power

Three main factions opposed the Syrian regime:

  • The Kurds, seeking autonomy in northern Syria.
  • Salafist-jihadist groups affiliated with Daesh (ISIS), whose objectives focused on establishing a transnational caliphate.
  • Turkey-backed factions, primarily linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Today, Turkey appears to benefit the most by installing its allies in power. Under Turkish influence, the new Syrian government adopts a national reconciliation discourse, promising safety for state officials, respect for ethnic and religious minorities, and protection of women’s rights.

2. Israel’s Annexation of the Golan Heights: Towards an Expansionist Project

The Golan Heights, strategically located between Israel, Syria, and Lebanon, were occupied by Israel during the Six-Day War in 1967 and unilaterally annexed in 1981—a decision never recognized by the international community (UN Security Council Resolution 497).

Israel’s Strategic and Security Objectives

  • Military Control: The Golan serves as a strategic shield, providing Israel with dominance over Syrian and Lebanese plains and facilitating military surveillance.
  • Water Resources: The Golan hosts significant freshwater reserves feeding into the Sea of Galilee, crucial for Israel's agriculture and water supply.
  • The Greater Israel Ambition: The annexation aligns with long-term geopolitical visions. Certain radical Zionist currents advocate for expanding Israel’s borders to include biblically claimed territories, such as southern Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza, and parts of Syria. This vision, often referred to as the "Greater Israel" project, is rooted in messianic and expansionist rhetoric.

By systematically bombing Syrian airports, military infrastructures, and ammunition depots, Israel seeks to weaken the new Syrian authorities while consolidating its control over the Golan Heights. However, this aggressive approach intensifies regional hostility and fuels resistance against the Israeli state, particularly through actors like the Lebanese Hezbollah.

Regional Impact

Israel’s expansion in the Golan has triggered widespread condemnation, even from nations traditionally aligned with the U.S. and Israel. This annexation, perceived as a provocation, exacerbates global mistrust toward Israel, already weakened by the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

3. The Role of Regional Powers: A Pragmatic Agreement

The reorganization of power in Syria appears to result from an agreement between Turkey, Russia, and Iran, allowing each actor to secure its strategic interests:

  • Turkey establishes itself as Syria's protector, thwarting Kurdish attempts to create an independent state.
  • Russia maintains its military interests in Tartus and Hmeimim while disengaging economically from the Syrian quagmire.
  • Iran, despite losing some influence, gains relative security by reducing the risk of confrontation with Israel.

Israel, excluded from this new arrangement, adopts a posture of aggressive defiance. Yet its expansionist ambitions risk backfiring:

  • They heighten tensions with Turkey and Russia.
  • They strengthen the regional resistance axis, led by Hezbollah and supported by Iran.
  • They further isolate Israel internationally, where its expansionist policies and violations of international law fuel perceptions of a colonial and genocidal state.

4. Geopolitical Consequences: Winners and Losers

Winners

  • Turkey: Emerging victorious, it reaffirms its role as a regional power, consolidates influence in Syria, and controls Kurdish ambitions.
  • Russia: It secures its military bases in Syria while minimizing the economic costs of war.
  • Syria: Despite reduced sovereignty, it benefits from prospects of economic reconstruction under Turkish tutelage.

Losers

  • Iran and Hezbollah: Their influence temporarily recedes, although their capacity to challenge Israel remains intact.
  • Israel: While it has removed an immediate rival (the Syrian regime), it now faces a Syria under Turkish influence, posing a new strategic challenge.

5. Prospects: Stabilization or Chaos?

If the agreement between Turkey, Russia, and Iran holds, the region could experience a gradual de-escalation, limiting the risks of a global war. However, Israel’s expansionism in the Golan Heights and its pursuit of the Greater Israel project risk provoking renewed tensions. This project, viewed as a colonial ambition, could:

  1. Revive armed resistance in the region, particularly through Hezbollah.
  2. Further isolate Israel on the international stage.
  3. Exacerbate regional rivalries among Israel, Turkey, and Iran.

Conclusion

The regime change in Syria reflects a regional reorganization where Turkey, Russia, and Iran dominate. While Israel has consolidated its control over the Golan Heights, its ambition to achieve the Greater Israel project faces significant geopolitical challenges. Whether this transition leads to stabilization or chaos depends on the ability of the regional powers to uphold this fragile balance. However, if Israel continues its expansion at the expense of international law, the Middle East risks entering a new phase of open conflict, with significant regional and global consequences.


Belgacem Merbah

References:

  1. United Nations Security Council, Resolution 497 (1981).
  2. Chomsky, N. Middle Eastern Wars: Geopolitical Perspectives (2020).
  3. Finkelstein, N. Israel and International Law (2018).
  4. Beauchamp, Z. “The Golan Heights: Why Israel's Occupation Matters,” Vox, 2019.
  5. Pappé, I. The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine (2006).
  6. Al Jazeera, "Israel's Annexation of the Golan Heights: Implications and Challenges", 2021.
  7. Fakir, I. “Turkey in Syria: Ambitions and Realities,” Revue des mondes musulmans et de la Méditerranée, 2022.
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