Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline: after realizing the impasse in which it finds itself, Morocco is using the "Coué" method to convince itself of a better future

Since 2015, a lot of ink has been spilled talking about the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline or the Africa Atlantic gas pipeline. Officially, this project would be a Moroccan royal initiative that was concretized in May 2017 with the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Queen of Morocco and the President of Nigeria. The reality is much more complicated, we will try, through this article, to shed our light to explain the context of the genesis of this project and the underlying goals and we will study the seriousness of this project.

The Africa Atlantic Pipeline is a gas pipeline project promoted by Morocco. It is intended to compete with the trans-Saharan gas pipeline project (Nigeria-Niger-Algeria gas pipeline). The "Moroccan" project is to build a 6,000 km undersea gas pipeline around the west coast of Africa, partly following the route of the West African gas pipeline, but with a much greater capacity than it. It would connect all the countries of West Africa as far as Morocco, and in the end some of the gas would be exported to Europe.

Let's talk about the genesis of this project and the real goals sought by the establishment of this pipeline: first, let's note the troubling "coincidence" of the allegiance of "Boko Haram" to the Islamic State on March 7, 2015, and the royal visit of the Queen of Morocco to Nigeria in 2016 to put in place the first milestones of this project. We know the links of Moroccan narco-traffickers (mainly controlled by the Moroccan royal palace) with terrorist organizations in the Sahel, this effective cooperation was in fact realized in 2011 with the creation of MUJAO which is a creation of Moroccan services. The allegiance of "Boko Haram" a local terrorist group, to the international terrorist franchise the Islamic State, allowed the passage of "Boko Haram" under the Zionist flag, this allegiance of "Boko Haram" to the EI had as an immediate effect, the acceleration of terrorist operations in northern Nigeria and Niger: a clear message to paralyze the trans-Saharan gas pipeline and pave the way for the visit of the Queen of Morocco to Nigeria. With the trans-Saharan gas pipeline "neutralized" by "Boko Haram" and its MUJAO acolytes, the royal road has been opened to the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline.

What about the sponsors and the goals sought by the sabotage of the Nigeria-Algeria gas pipeline? To answer this question, we must look at the issues linked to the networks of Françafrique. Algeria and its principles inherited from the glorious war of national liberation, has always fought imperialism in Africa and in the world. To continue to assert its domination over West Africa, France could not stand idly by in the face of a project that would bring Algeria closer to its African depth: the Nigeria-Algeria gas pipeline project is not only an energy project, this project is also coupled with the trans-Saharan route (itself coupled with the Chinese Silk Road project). This trans-Saharan route has long been blocked by terrorist groups in the Sahel. This trans-Saharan route has been replaced by the illegal El Guerguerat crossing between occupied Western Sahara and Mauritania, which was opened in 2016: what a coincidence!

Morocco as a vassal state to France (cf. Aix-les-Bains interdependence agreement in August 1955, these agreements extended the French protectorate for another 100 years, so technically Morocco is still under French protectorate, and this until 2056), has become the proxy of France in its new African policy (cf. Françafrique 2. 0), so thanks to Morocco, France continues the same policy of domination and predation on African wealth, but under the guise of a South-South cooperation where Morocco is put forward: in reality, nothing has changed, because all the "Moroccan" companies involved in trade with Africa are controlled mostly by French capital.

Let's move on to the French project, pardon Moroccan project 😊 of the Nigeria - Morocco gas pipeline, is it credible? is it realistic? is it profitable?

What is striking about this project is that it passes through 13 countries, including the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), which has diplomatic relations with the Federal Republic of Nigeria. How can one imagine for a moment that this pipeline can pass through the territory of occupied Western Sahara, without the agreement of the SADR and with the blessing of Nigeria? After that, what is also surprising is the quantities of gas that Nigeria will have to give free of charge to the African countries that will be crossed by this pipeline, we call this the rights of way: these rights of way are estimated at 91% of the quantity of natural gas that will transit through this pipeline. Finally, we must recognize that the countries crossed are very poor (what about solvency? Will these countries be able to pay for their gas?) and politically unstable, the question of securing this pipeline is seriously raised, because compression stations that will necessarily be on land will have to be built along the route of this gas pipeline. There is also the question of technical expertise: the countries through which the pipeline passes are not familiar with the gas industry, and it will be necessary to train engineers and technicians to ensure that the pipeline remains in operational condition.

To finish on the feasibility of this project, it should be noted that Morocco has not been able to advance the amount necessary to launch the feasibility study, several credit agencies have been requested by Morocco, at the time of writing this article, the 100 million dollars necessary for this feasibility study, have still not been collected. Note also the very high cost of this feasibility study which is justified by the technical complexity of this project, it is a real technical challenge (the Algerian Minister of Energy Mr. Akrab had described this project as a project with unlimited constraints!): a submarine gas pipeline of more than 6,000 km has never been done, and there must be good reasons for that. The cost of this project, estimated at 50 billion dollars, is also a major obstacle, as it compromises the economic equation and seriously lengthens the timeframe for a return on investment. We believe that all the elements mentioned above, have largely contributed to make difficult the financing of this pharaonic project, to date, the financing of this project remains obscure and no one knows how Morocco, a highly indebted country will be able to finance or find the donors who will trust the signature of Morocco to collect the 50 billion dollars: that Morocco begins by collecting the 100 million dollars for the feasibility study, we'll see after 😊 !

Let's talk about a more reasonable project technically, it is of course the project of the trans-Saharan gas pipeline between Algeria and Nigeria through Niger. This project is at the stage of realization, the feasibility study and the opportunity study being finalized. The project passes through two countries, the tolls are extremely low (14%), the cost of the project is quite reasonable, which will allow a return on investment in two years maximum. On the subject of security, for the past two years or so, Nigeria has won major military victories over "Boko Haram", particularly in northern Nigeria. To date, the northern region of Nigeria is completely secure, the residues of the terrorist group "Boko Haram" are present in the border area with Cameroon. In Mali, we have all witnessed the advent of Russia as a stabilizing power in southern Mali, and in northern Mali the Algerian army is working with its Malian counterpart. As far as Niger is concerned, Algeria will take charge of securing the gas pipeline that will cross Niger, while our army trains its counterpart in Niger.  Finally, Algeria as a gas country has all the technical and commercial expertise to handle the 30 billion cubic meters that will be sent each year, the financing also poses no problem, because Algeria as Nigeria have the capacity to finance in equity. Note however, the growing interest of several European countries, several countries have expressed their desire to take a stake in this project (Germany and Poland for example). This contrasts with the French project which has not found any financing.

To finish, I let you look at this comparative table which informs on the seriousness and the feasibility of the project pushed by France and its Moroccan vassal: