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Morocco should show more humility, as long as it remains under the mercy of Algeria, with regard to its gas supply from Spain

Morocco should show more humility, as long as it remains under the mercy of Algeria, with regard to its gas supply from Spain




Since the stoppage of the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline (GME), on November 1st at 0:00, following a sovereign decision of Algeria who wished to punish the Kingdom of Morocco, for its hostile and bellicose policy towards our country, an unprecedented energy crisis has settled permanently in Morocco.

The direct consequence of the cessation of natural gas supplies from Algeria has been the shutdown of 2 gas-fired power plants, which alone account for 15% of total electricity production in Morocco. The Tahaddart (30 km south of Tangier) and Ain Beni Mathar (near Jarada) power plants, built respectively in 2005 and 2010, were supplied with natural gas via the Maghreb-Europe (GME) pipeline. The shutdown of these two major power plants, powered by Algerian gas, has shown Morocco's strong dependence on its neighbors, Spain and Algeria. Morocco has tried to compensate for the shutdown of these power plants, by importing massive amounts of electricity from Spain at a high price, and especially by a lot of electricity load shedding in several popular Moroccan districts. The other consequence of the cessation of Algerian natural gas is the massive and precipitous departure of several foreign multinationals because energy will necessarily cost more in Morocco. This new deal hurts Morocco a lot, because it loses a major competitive advantage that attracted many multinationals. Moreover, the departure of multinationals was not the only impact of the GME pipeline shutdown on Morocco, Morocco has experienced unprecedented inflation, at the end of 2021, which has increased in 2022. Between October 2021 and June 2022, Morocco saw 23% inflation (year-over-year)!
Contrary to Moroccan propaganda, the energy crisis in which Morocco has become entangled on its own, following its hostile, aggressive and irrational policy towards our country, has highlighted the amateurism and lack of long-term vision regarding the energy security of the Kingdom of Morocco (Morocco had no plan B to replace Algerian gas in the short term): we all remember, that in May 2021 during the migration crisis in the Spanish city of Ceuta, it was Morocco that threatened Spain not to renew the GME gas pipeline contract. 

Thanks to Algeria, Morocco used the gas card from time to time to threaten Europe. Thanks to Algeria's kindness, Morocco has been propelled as an important player in the European energy equation, which has allowed it to create an industry that did not exist before 1995 in Morocco. It seems that Morocco did not fully appreciate the fragility of its position, and especially the leeway that Algeria has in terms of independent decision-making. What misled Morocco was that it believed that Algeria was like it, a vassal state created by France (cf. General Lyautey, creator of Morocco) and which obeys the orders of the imperialist powers.

After several months of lamentations and supplications, and especially thanks to the decisive help of the spy application "Pegasus", Morocco has blackmailed Pedro Sánchez and his wife, this blackmail has allowed Morocco to change the Spanish position on the Western Sahara file in its favor and also to agree to jeopardize its strategic partnership with Algeria to supply the Kingdom of Morocco with 1 billion cubic meters of gas! A negligible amount that represents only 2% of Spain's annual natural gas consumption.

Since the end of June, the Spanish company Enagas announced the beginning of natural gas delivery from Spain to Morocco using the GME pipeline, the Spanish confirm that the gas delivered to Morocco is derived from the transformation of quantities of LNG purchased by Morocco on international markets and transformed into gas in Spanish regasification units, then injected into the GME pipeline. It should be recalled that Spain has no right to sell Algerian gas to any third party without the prior agreement of Algeria.

Following this announcement, we saw many articles in the Moroccan press expressing the joy and pride of the Moroccans for having defeated the Algerian enemy. Factually, can we say that Morocco has beaten its Algerian enemy? Can we say that Morocco has been able to guarantee its energy security? Can we say that, as a result of this operation, energy is cheaper than before the GME was stopped in Morocco?

In Algeria, we do not understand these manifestations of joy and satisfaction, because Algeria has succeeded in its bet:

1- Morocco pays its energy much more expensive than before (this was the main objective of Algeria): LNG costs 35% more than natural gas that arrives in pipelines, we must add to this cost the transport by ship, and the price of using Spanish plants for regasification - according to our estimates, Morocco pays its energy 250% more than before the GME pipeline stop.

2- In addition to the 7% of natural gas that used to transit through the pipeline, Algeria used to pay Morocco annual transit fees estimated at $200 million, following the shutdown of the GME, Algeria saves this amount annually; this is also a huge loss of revenue for Moroccan coffers.

3- Morocco is under the mercy of the Spaniards, whereas before it was Morocco that delivered Algerian gas to Spain: the paradigm has completely changed, it is Spain that now has a pressure card on Morocco.

4- Morocco's energy security does not depend on Morocco and international markets, Morocco depends first of all on Spain's capacity to regasify its LNG purchased on international markets. As Spain is 30% dependent on the Algerian MedGaz pipeline, as Spain's regasification units only cover 70% of its needs, it is obvious that in case of a halt in the delivery of Algerian gas, Spain will no longer be able to process the LNG purchased by Morocco on the international markets, as it will prefer to supply its domestic market instead of delivering gas to Morocco

5- If Spain were to be requested by a European country to use its regasification capacity, European countries will always have priority over Morocco.

In conclusion, by an irrational and megalomaniac policy, Morocco has lost everything in terms of energy security. The crisis between Russia and Ukraine, has allowed Algeria to strengthen its position on the European market, as a key player in the European energy equation. Morocco, on the other hand, is definitively excluded from this equation. 
Morocco is very dependent on Spain's regasification capacity, which in turn depends on Algerian gas deliveries via the MedGaz pipeline. An accident or shutdown of the MedGaz contract means a halt to gas deliveries from Spain to Morocco, as Spain will always choose to supply its citizens and businesses, rather than exporting gas to Morocco. The Moroccans would therefore be better advised to show a great deal of humility, and to stop provoking Algeria with imaginary victories.

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